Box Office Predictions: 'The Mummy' 'Megan Leavey' and 'It Comes At Night'

There are three new entrants to the box office this weekend, and each of them are looking to grab the attention of the movie going crowds.  The big question is if any of them will be able to topple Wonder Woman from first place in the box office.

The movie with the best chances of doing that is The Mummy.  It stars Tom Cruise, and is positioned as a big budget blockbuster.  Special effects, sequences of Mr. Cruise running... this movie would like to believe that it has it all.  There are great expectations mounted on this film, as it is the kick off to Universal's Dark Universe, something that I wrote about recently on the blog.  The expectations aren't just that it will succeed as a movie, but that it will create a launching pad for an entire franchise.

Those expectations are not looking so good at this point.  Currently it has a sour 18% on Rotten Tomatoes, a sign that it could be in some trouble.  To get some comparison here, I am going to look at another Tom Cruise movie that was also an established property, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back.  It had 37% on Rotten Tomatoes and opened up at only $22 million.  Cruise is a recognizable name, that's for sure, but people more generally like to see him in good movies.  Having the name alone doesn't do much.

At the time of writing this, The Mummy has just shy of 15,000 tweets for the day.  Last week at this time, Wonder Woman had well over 130,000 before opening to $105 million.  What is not looking good for The Mummy is that the positive to negative ratio of tweets stands at 3:1.  That's not good at all for a movie that is expected to launch an entire cinematic universe.  Two days ago, that ratio was 2:1.

Probably the most terrifying indicator is the fact that, according to Rotten Tomatoes, only 51% of the audience enjoyed the film.  In an age where word of mouth springs forth as fast as it takes to type something onto your phone, this could be the death of the movie.  There is a chance that there are those that are determined to see the film based off of the recognition of the property, but there are too many signs that people sitting on the fence are going to be staying home.

The Mummy Opening Weekend Prediction - $28 million

Coming from studio A24, is It Comes At Night.  This is a horror film, and this genre has shown in the past that there is room during the summer for horrors to do well.  The trailers make it look like it could be a great film, and the critical reception has been solid.  It currently holds 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is something special for a horror film.

The down side is that it hasn't been doing well on social media.  Well, that's difficult to say.  According to boxoffice.com, it is tracking ahead of The Gift on Facebook, yet below The Witch.  This makes it difficult to get an understanding of just how much social media is indicating the performance of this movie.  One Twitter, it has over three thousand tweets for the day, and is sitting at the same 3:1 ratio as The Mummy.  While the critics are on board for this film, Rotten Tomatoes has the audience rating at 52%.

It Comes At Night Opening Weekend Prediction - $8 million

Lastly, we have Megan Leavey starring Kate Mara.  It is being distributed by Bleeker Street, and is opening in just shy of two thousand theatres.  This is a war story that involves a dog, so it could appeal to animal lovers.  They showed that they will go out to theatres with A Dog's Purpose, which opened to a healthy $18 million.  The fact that there are solid reviews (currently at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes) should help this movie out of the gates.

The big question to be asked is if Kate Mara is enough of a star to carry a movie.  Last year, Morgan, opened to only $2 million.  It is currently the ninth worst opening all time for a movie opening in two thousand or more theatres.  Now, these movies are in different genres and there are a number of differing circumstances, but the fact remains that Mara just isn't much of a star yet, even though she is incredibly talented.

Megan Leaves Opening Weekend Prediction - $3 million

Box Office Predictions: 'Wonder Woman' and 'Captain Underpants'

I find myself in a very tricky position this week.  Wonder Woman has finally come, and with that there are a number of factors that must be weighed in to get an understanding of where it might fall in the box office.  I liked last weekend better.  It was much more straight forward, and it was easy to get my mind around possibilities for the wide releases.  This is the part of predicting that sucks.  Writing away and having no clue of what the end result will be until it is time to type it.

Before I get to the positives around Wonder Woman, I should start off with the elephant in the room.  That is the Warner Bros' DC shared universe.  This collection of movies (which so far has three entries) is far from organic.  It is forced, and the films have reflected that.  They have not been solid entities and have seen huge diminishes in their first to second week earnings.  Warner Bros should be a little scared.  They are very obviously attempting to mirror Marvel, but Marvel went about it in a different way.  They made singular movies and then strung them together for The Avengers.  It was a process that was a lot more free-flowing than this attempt to play catch up.

The big question is, has the quality of the previous DC movies caused fans to be cautious of Wonder Woman?  I think it has.  There are die-hard fanboys that would think this is not the case, but history has shown that the quality of films catch up on the creators and that good will is not unending.  Zack Snyder's bleak version of the Superman movies was something that Suicide Squad tried to break free from, and yet those attempts couldn't save it from falling 67% into its second weekend.  The die may have already been cast on this shared universe attempt, and people may very well be staying away from this latest film.

That being said, the previous movies did not have the same sort of acclaim heading into their debuts.  Sadly, this is the first 'fresh' DC movie on Rotten Tomatoes since the attempt to create the shared universe.  What Wonder Woman appears to have going for it is that it is actually a good movie and not just something that is created to make more films off of.  Currently it is sitting at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.  This is sure to help ease the concerns of audience members that have already been burned by DC and Warner Bros.  While it may not have the biggest impact on the film's opening weekend, it is sure to help its longevity in the box office.

While critical reviews have proven to not be a solid indicator of how a superhero movie will do, I will now turn to what is probably the most telling indicator of the excitement around Wonder Woman.  Currently, for Thursday, June 1st, there have been 139,775 tweets about this movie.  That is a lot of energy to be circulating around a film.  It is a sign that there could be a lot of hunger towards a movie that centres around a female protagonist.  It is these Twitter numbers that show we could have a break out hit on our hands.  While the studio is anticipating an opening weekend of $70-75 million, this could prove to be ultra-conservative, and I see Wonder Woman performing a lot better than that.

Wonder Woman Opening Weekend Prediction - $115 million

Opening up alongside of Wonder Woman is Fox's Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie.  It will have a bit of franchise appeal to those who are familiar with the books, and its hope is to capitalize on the recent lack of animated family fare to attract new fans.  The last animated film in theatres was Smurfs: The Lost Village on April 7.  This is a long time to go between family films, and the drought may be on the side of Captain Underpants here.

The unfortunate thing for Mr. Underpants is that there are a few highly anticipated animated movies soon to hit theatres.  In two weeks we have Cars 3, and then two weekends after that it is Despicable Me 3.  It could be the case that there are families that are waiting for those two films to come out.  Taking a family out to the theatre is no cheap activity, and viewers may be watching their wallets for the more recognizable names later in the month.

While activity on Flixster has been comparable to where The Boss Baby was leading into its opening weekend, other indicators are not there to prove that it will be as popular.  To give you an example of what I mean, The Boss Baby has over 1.3 million likes on Facebook.  Captain Underpants, on the other hand, has only 66 thousand.  That is quite the difference, and it shows that this film is in for a healthy, yet not overly impressive, opening weekend.

Captain Underpants Opening Weekend Prediction - $35 million

Box Office Predictions: 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales' and 'Baywatch'

There is a saying, 'better late than never.'  This must have been concocted by someone who had a notorious time being on schedule for things.  There is some truth to the saying, so I will stand by it.  While my predictions piece should have been written yesterday, there is no time like the present to make up for my lack of motivation.

The main draw this weekend is Johnny Depp returning as Captain Jack Sparrow, in Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.  There is a lot of love for this character, and that excitement for a return could very well turn into box office dollars.  This is something that I would love to see as I picked it as part of my pool for the summer blockbuster contest held on The Movie Breakdown Podcast.  I want people to remember the charm and mesmerizing performance of Depp, pay no attention to the last Pirates movie, pay no attention to Rotten Tomatoes, and go out to see this film during its opening weekend.

However, that plea may be falling on deaf ears.  There is a very real and thriving beast in the movie landscape, and that creature is known as franchise fatigue.  It strikes its tentacles at almost everything in sight, bringing down returns with each successive outing of a property.  There are some exceptions.  The second Hunger Games performed better than the first.  Most notably is the Iron Man franchise, where each film outdid the previous, at least as far as opening weekends went.

I am doubtful that we will see that happening here.  The first three Pirates movies each made more than the previous (both in opening weekend and domestic grosses), but there was a significant drop with the first film outside of the trilogy, On Stranger Tides.  It opened to $90 million, compared to the $135 million opening weekend of Dead Man's Chest five years prior.  Once again, we have a solid lapse between instalments, and I cannot help but think that the curse of the drop is going to live strong here as well.  They are bringing back Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley to reprise their old roles, but has too much harm already been done to render this moot?

I think so.  The film mainly relies on the role of Johnny Depp and his ability to draw in quirky roles.  The problem is that audiences have now been there and seen that.  Two of the previous attempts to cash in on this have been failures.  The Lone Ranger (which has almost the exact same Rotten Tomatoes percentage as Dead Men Tell No Tales) opened just shy of $30 million.  A few years later, Alice Through the Looking Glass (which shares the same 30% rating on Rotten Tomatoes as Dead Men) opened to a measly $26 million on a budget of $170 million.  I think we can say that after other flops like Transcendence and Mortdecai Depp is no longer the magnet that he was in the mid 2000s.

The biggest crowd that will be attending theatres to see Jack Sparrow this weekend will undoubtedly be hardcore fans of the franchise.  Even then, we once again come across franchise fatigue.  Are people really going to be wanting to shell out the dollars and see the film, especially since it is rather poorly reviewed?  This, with an insane budget of $230, could be a shipwreck and the second blockbuster failure of the season.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Opening Weekend Prediction - $60 million

For fans of the television show Baywatch, they can finally be fully satisfied as the film comes out in theatres this weekend.  However, they may be a little disappointed if they are expecting it to be similar to the television show.  Judging by the trailers, it is more in line with the kind of remake that 21 Jump Street or even CHIPs was.  It is revamped with an R-rating, and is more using the intellectual property as a catapult for a film.

This worked out really well for 21 Jump Street, but not so great for CHIPs.  Audiences loved the Jump Street movie, as did the critics.  It had a healthy $36 million opening weekend, and the sequel had a massive $57 million opening take.  It shows that the format could work, but what really helped out with this franchise was the fact that it was grounded by solid movies and had adequate star power to propel them to success.

Star power is one thing that Baywatch has.  Say what you will about the drawing power of Zac Efron (or the lack thereof if you are looking at the $1.7 million opening of We Are Your Friends), the real showcase here is Dwayne Johnson.  He hasn't seen a movie debut at less than $20 million since 2013's Snitch.  Lots has happened between then and now, with Johnson being one of the premier names in Hollywood.  It has come with lots of work, and the man has now arrived at the pinnacle.

While lack of critical reception is not always a death blow to comedies, it is difficult to look at the 19% on Rotten Tomatoes and think that it may not be a factor.  If anything, it is a sign that word of mouth coming out of the movie will be harmful to it.  In the age of social media, this can be a real killer.  Thankfully for Johnson and company, the movie has an audience approval rating of 70% on Rotten Tomatoes.  This could mean a less front loaded opening weekend, but I am also not predicting that it will be a massive success.

Baywatch Opening Weekend Prediction - $28 million

Box Office Predictions: 'Alien: Covenant,' 'Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul,' and 'Everything, Everything'

There are some great advantages to living in beautiful cottage country Ontario.  The pace of life is much more relaxing, there is beauty to be seen everywhere, and the people are extremely nice.  There is a trade off, though.  It has taken me away from a local movie theatre where I could watch weekly releases.  That is a major downside, especially on the weekend of the latest in the Alien series.  I am not the only person who is geeked up over Alien: Covenant, there are many.  But are these loyal multitudes enough to propel it to overtake Guardians of the Galaxy from the number one spot?

There really are a lot of people who were brought excitedly into the world of Ridley Scott's Alien and the James Cameron follow up, Aliens.  These people, like me, are longing for something new to add to the mythology.  It needs to be something of quality, though.  The fourth Alien movie made me sour on the franchise and left me wishing that it had been left dead after Aliens.

And then came along Prometheus.  It was set in the same universe as the Alien movies, but did not focus on the xenomorphs.  This, as well as a narrative that left many questions, did not completely satiate the audiences.  It was a good performer, taking in $51 million during its opening weekend.  This is solid ground for Covenant to work off of, but the main question that has yet to be answered is how many people were turned off by Prometheus?

What really helps this film is that it has Ridley Scott in the director's chair, the man responsible for the franchise.  Critics are so far liking it well enough, with it currently sitting at 76% on Rotten Tomatoes.  That should be a high enough score to keep people from being scared away from this movie.  Social media has been solid, with Alien: Covenant being the second most tweeted about movie right now.  The anticipation is there, but I can't help but think that it won't make as much as Prometheus did.  It will still be a solid opening weekend, just not as hot.

Alien: Covenant Opening Weekend Prediction - $40 million

Also opening this weekend is Fox's Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul.  I have to admit right here that I am not too familiar with this franchise, and that is by choice.  It never appealed to me, but that was alright because I am not the target market.  The latest movie, if it is anything like the trailer makes it look like, could be a train wreck of a film.  With a score of 23% on Rotten Tomatoes, it could be the case.

The problem with this franchise's earning potential, apart from looking appalling, is the fact that the franchise has already come and gone.  It released movies in 2010, 2011, and 2012, with each film making less as the series went on.  The latest film, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, opened to $14 million.  I am predicting a large drop from this, and I see The Long Haul opening to just over half of Dog Days.  Movies in franchises lose their steam, and this one appears to be coming after the fans of the original movies are already grown out of the demographic.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul Opening Weekend Prediction - $7.5 million

Lastly, we have the young adult movie, Everything, Everything.  Time and time again, studios have tried to rail their way into the YA market and bring home something successful that rivals the actioner The Hunger Games, or the drama The Fault in Our Stars.  So many movies have been a bust, and this could be another one of those films that just sort of comes and goes.

This movie is based off of the book of the same name, written by Nicola Yoon.  It should be able to pull out some of the book's fans, but that is not a given for box office success.  Earlier this year, Before I Fall (which is a YA movie also based on a book) opened to $4.7 million.  The lesson to learn from that movie is that it is a fickle market place, and a recognizable name doesn't instantly translate into money.

Everything, Everything Opening Weekend Prediction - $7 million

Box Office Predictions: 'The Promise' and 'Unforgettable'

It's a whole new week, and the easiest thing to predict about this upcoming weekend is that The Fate of the Furious will repeat as the number one movie in theatres.  How much it drops is anyone's guess, although I would estimate somewhere in the region of 58% or so.  This has been a year where there haven't been as many wild second weekend drops, but I don't see Furious having the lasting power that some other movies have seen.  It is an all out race to see who gets second place.  Will it be The Boss Baby, or will it be one of the newcomer movies?  There are four movies opening this weekend, but only two that are coming out in over two thousand theatres, so I will be taking a look at those two.


Starring Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon, The Promise shows the power to catch people's attention and make them consider going to the theatres to purchase admission.  All three are stunning talents and have wonderful careers ahead of them.  The story, which is set near the end of the Ottoman Empire, is a love triangle between the three.  If you were to believe reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, it is not necessarily the best feature of the movie, with one critic referring it to Pearl Harbour, and another calling it 'stock romantic melodrama.'

With Furious 8, the reviews didn't seem to hurt it, and it wouldn't for a movie of that style.  However, for movies targeted at mature audiences, reviews do matter.  At least the Rotten Tomato score matters.  As of writing this, it is sitting at 41% on Rotten Tomatoes, with only 24% from the top critics.  This really hurts the chances of The Promise, as its target audience is more likely to shy away from this offering.

The Promise Opening Weekend Prediction - $3.5 million


The other film that is opening this weekend, Unforgettable, is sitting at an even lower percentage on Rotten Tomatoes.  Currently it has a rating of 32%, but it is unlikely going to harm it as much as The Promise.  This is a thriller that is looking to target a younger audience who may not be scared off by poor critical reception.

One thing that they could be scared off by, however, is the fact that this movie looks a little formulaic.  There is a love lost, revenge taken, and screams to be had along the way.  The trailer tells the plot and seems to leave little other than the climax up to the imagination.

The film does have a few recognizable names in Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson.  Heigl has generally been in movies that have a ten million dollar plus opening weekend, with a few exceptions. This may be another one of those exceptions.  The current social media buzz is fairly low for what it should be, and this could be an indicator that the film will have a difficult time getting out of the gates.

Unforgettable Opening Weekend Prediction - $8 million

If The Boss Baby holds up as expected it should have no problem remaining in second place this weekend.  This is a strong holding movie that continues to impress in the box office.  It has now gotten over $300 million world wide, and has a little legs left in it.

Box Office Predictions: 'The Fate of the Furious'

Every now and then there is a time in theatres when there is only one wide release scheduled.  It usually signifies a stand out performance is expected and there is little that wants to go up against it.  It isn't necessarily the case with all blockbusters, as sometimes counter programming offers options for those that don't want to watch the latest Star Wars.  This weekend is one where there is nothing else in sight other than fast cars and tuned up bodies.

Two years ago, around the same time of year (give or take a week earlier) Furious 7 burst into movie theatres across the continent and set forth the largest April opening weekend on record with $147 million.  It also sits in fifth place for the highest world wide opening weekends of all time with $397 million.  Furious 7 was a movie that turned a lot of heads and got a lot of people to flood the theatres, and Universal is looking to repeat that with this year's offering.

However, I don't think that it is going to perform as well as the previous attempt.  There was something going for Furious 7 that the latest instalment does not have, and that is the death of Paul Walker.  His passing gave new light to the movie, and inspired an ending to it that was a farewell to the deceased actor.  That boosted interest in the movie is now gone, and it is going to come down to general marketing and audience interest to get the wheels spinning on this one.

There have been a few additions to the cast to add to the already beefed up star power, but I don't see Helen Mirren as a talent that fans of the franchise know too much about.  They could be excited to see Charlize Theron playing the villain, which is something that positive reviews of the film point out as being a quality performance.

Even with the bigger cast, it is often extremely difficult to maintain excitement and buzz for a franchise.  It is incredibly difficult to see box office numbers get bigger as a franchise goes along, and I can't see this being the case for the Furious films two outings in a row.  I expect that it will see a decent sized drop this weekend compared to the 2015 instalment, but it will by no means be a failure.  Universal is still going to see a lot of money come from this film, just not as much as perhaps they are hoping for.

The Fate of the Furious Opening Weekend Prediction: $125 million

That's about it for this weekend.  The other thing that will be interesting to see is if Beauty and the Beast will end up on top of The Boss Baby this weekend.  At this stage of their releases, I think that anything's possible, but I will be surprised if Beauty and the Beast manages to overcome The Boss Baby.  Out of the two films, it is the one that stands to lose the most audience members to The Fate of the Furious, with The Boss Baby having a younger demographic to lean into that won't be seeing this month's hottest movie.  I could be wrong, though.  It has happened once or twice before.

Box Office Predictions: Smurfs: The Lost Village, Going in Style, and The Case for Christ

It is really dismal just how long I have been away from this blog.  So dismal in fact that the last post I had was a dream about a movie review for Smurfs 2.  I still try not to think about that movie, and luckily it hasn't haunted many of my thoughts over the past while.  Unfortunately, however, there is a new Smurfs movie about to hit theatres, and I am here today to look at its financial chances and to see if it can beat out The Boss Baby for the number one spot on the charts.


It has been four years since a Smurfs movie has been released by Sony, and the big question is whether or not it is time for another one.  Regardless of my thoughts on the matter, Sony has gone full on in trying to reboot the franchise, this time with full animation as opposed to the mix of animation and live action that they did with the first two films.  It is a whole new set of cast members for this go-around, but is that enough for Sony to shake free of the memories of the second Smurfs movie, which didn't fair well domestically and was despised by many critics?

The main issue that Smurfs: The Lost Village will be running into is Alec Baldwin voicing the main role for The Boss Baby.  It was a surprise hit that managed to take first place away from Beauty and the Beast last weekend, and should easily stay in the number one spot.  It seems to be bad positioning for the Smurfs movie to come out when there are already two family movies in theatres, films that will most certainly be taking perspective audience members away.

There seems to be little buzz for this movie, and the main thing that it has going for it right now is that its budget is only $60 million.  In the long run it should be able to make that back with its world wide grosses, but seeing as how the second Smurf movie was a considerable opening weekend drop from the first ($17.5 million compared to $35.6 million) I have to believe that there is not a whole lot of either good will or interest in the Smurfs universe.  I expect this new movie, which lacks big names to interest the parents, will do similar, if not a little worse, than The Smurfs 2.

Smurfs: The Lost Village Opening Weekend Prediction - $16 million


Also opening up this weekend is Going in Style, a movie about three pensioners that decide to rob a bank after they get screwed over by said bank.  It stars Alan Arkin, Michael Caine, and Morgan Freeman.  Audiences do like movies that have older cast ensembles, and the trailer makes it appear as though these three play off of each other with great chemistry and timing.

I'm not saying that it will necessarily be a good movie, but the kind that can get older audiences off of their buts and into a comfy theatre seat for an evening.  The best comparison that I could come up with for this film was Last Vegas, another movie that had Morgan Freeman in it.  That film was able to take in $16 million during its opening week, but I am predicting that it will be less for Going in Style.

Why would I be looking to predict less for this movie?  Well, it sounds like a superficial reason, but the answer is because it is April.  This is generally a slower month for movies, and Last Vegas came out at the beginning of November in 2013.  That's a time when there is generally more mature fare in theatres and it played well to that strength.  Having this movie come out now reminds me of Robert DeNiro's The Big Wedding that came out in April of 2013.  It had a star studded cast and failed to go anywhere, something that I am leaning towards a bit with Going in Style.

Going in Style Opening Weekend Prediction - $7 million


Finally, we have The Case for Christ hitting theatres this weekend in a smaller release.  It is targeting around a thousand theatres, and aims to hit the Christian demographic.  It is based off of a non-fiction book of the same name, and there are hopes that this will mean added dollars based off of the book's popularity.

As far as Christian fare goes this year, The Shack (also based off of a book) opened to $16 million its first weekend.  That was a huge win for the film, which has so far achieved a domestic total of $53 million.  The main differences between these two films are the fact that The Shack had a few well known actors in Octavia Spencer and Sam Worthington, something that The Case for Christ is missing.  As well, the source material for The Shack was fiction, which will probably lead to better buy in from the audience as it is hard to imagine a non-fiction book about a man investigating Christianity to have a well rounded story.

I could be wrong, though.  This could be another movie that defies expectations and gets people's attention.  However, I am betting that I am right and that this movie fails to gain much traction.  I am predicting around an average of $3,000 per theatre, which may be a bit steep.  It is in line with the average that God's Not Dead 2 made around this time last year, so I don't think that it is out of the question to see that kind of per theatre average.

The Case for Christ Opening Weekend Prediction - $3 million

Weekend Box Office Predictions: 'The Light Between Oceans' and 'Morgan'

This week has not been the most exciting for me.  Instead of plowing forward with projects, I took some down time for myself.  I was ordered by my wife to play some video games and to not think about writing for a bit, so that's what Wednesday and Thursday were for me.  As much as I tried to stay away, I still found myself getting a lot of proofreading done on a manuscript.  So much for being able to walk away from it completely.

So, that is why this weekend's predictions are getting posted today instead of on Thursday.  That and the fact that there was little to become excited about with the offerings in store for movie goers.  Pondering over the numbers, it is doubtful that either The Light Between Oceans or Morgan is going to be able to make over ten million in their debut.

The Light Between Oceans

For some people, hearing the name Derek Cianfrance attached to a movie is enough to get them excited and out to theatres.  He made his name off of 2010's critical darling, Blue Valentine.  It was his first feature film, and one that earned an Oscar nomination for Michelle Williams' performance.  Cianfrance followed it up with The Place Beyond the Pines, his first movie to make it into wide release after spending three weeks in limited release.  With two solid films behind his name, the problem is that the crowd that knows who he is and follows him is still a small one.

This time around he is teaming with Buena Vista, and The Light Between Oceans is beginning in wide release instead of having to work its way towards it.  When The Place Beyond the Pines was in its first weekend of wide release, it made $4.9 million.  I see The Light Between Oceans doing a bit better than that, but not by much.  While it has the marketing power of Disney behind it, there is very little social awareness of the product.

The other thing that is going to hurt the movie are the critical reviews.  At the time of writing this, it is sitting at sixty percent on Rotten Tomatoes.  That's not awful, but it is low enough to possibly dissuade the type of mature movie goer that would be thinking about seeing this movie.

Prediction - $7.5 million

Morgan

Opening up opposite is Fox's Morgan, starring Kate Mara and Anya Taylor-Joy.  Both of them are extremely talented actors, but the issue is their drawing power.  Taylor-Joy is still a relative unknown, and Mara has not been in key starring roles before.  Most of her mainstream works come from supporting positions, such as in The Martian and Fantastic Four.

But, as last month's Don't Breathe showed us, you don't need to have marquee names as leads to propel a horror-rooted film into a good position in the box office.  The difference here is the social media factor.  There was a lot of awareness for Don't Breathe, while Morgan doesn't even show up in the top ten most tweeted films, a death blow to a movie that is opening this weekend and has a target demographic that is fuelled by social media.

Prediction - $5.5 million

Weekend Box Office Predictions: 'Don't Breathe', and 'Mechanic: Resurrection'

Could this finally be the weekend that Suicide Squad gets knocked out of first place in the box office?  I am voting yes.  The run of Suicide Squad, spending three weeks at number one, had less to do with its holding power than it did with the weaker offerings that come about at this time of year.  Going into week four of its release, it will come as an absolute shock to me if it is able to hold off an upstart horror film that should be able to take first place from it.


Don't Breathe

This is the second team up from producer Sam Raimi and director Fede Alvarez.  The two paired up originally with the 2013 remake, Evil Dead.  Alvarez was a first time feature film director, having worked on a number of shorts before hand.  While I was a bit of a fence sitter on the final product, Alvarez showed that he was extremely capable of using environment to set to the tone and the feel of a film, something that will play well into Don't Breathe, as it appears to spend almost all of its time without one house.

It was that attention to atmosphere, as well as cinematography, that helped win over the fans of horror as he used practical effects and led Evil Dead to an opening weekend of $25 million.  The movie topped out at $54 million domestically, so it didn't have the greatest legs.  But, long term projection is not what I am all about in these articles, so let's not worry about that.

Evil Dead had something going for it that Don't Breathe doesn't have, and that is a name brand with rabid followers.  I am not going to equate too much of Evil Dead's success to having a niche fan base, because we have seen in other films, like Edgar Wright's Cornetto trilogy, have hardcore fans that don't make a large impact on the box office.  We could also look at Warcraft from earlier this summer to see that fans don't mean financial success.

All of that is to say that I don't see a huge dip in box office openings between Evil Dead and Don't Breathe.  I think there will be a bit of a drop, and that Don't Breathe won't open to the same numbers, but it will come close.  It has had a solid marketing campaign, and it is holding up well on Twitter.  The critics are loving it, so it may just end up having better legs than the front loaded Evil Dead.

Prediction: $22 million


Mechanic: Resurrection

This movie is a difficult one to think about.  Firstly, it is because the first movie was not a hit.  It brought in a world wide tally of $62 million on a budget of $40 million.  Those are hardly numbers that make a property declarable as a winner.  Secondly, it's star, Jason Statham, is not a big numbers driver.  He does well in ensemble casts, but films where he is the principle cast member don't run very well.  This is his first starring role since 2013's Homefront, which opened to just under $7 million.  The opening weekend numbers are similar for other efforts such as Parker ($7 million opening weekend), and Safe ($7.8 million opening).

It is hard to believe that things have changed drastically for Statham and his ability to draw audiences.  This is a franchise that nobody was really asking for.  Movies about action and adventure have a difficult time drawing at this time of year.  Last year saw Hitman: Agent 47 open to $8 million, as well as No Escape opening to the same numbers a week later.

While the title of the film is 'resurrection,' I don't believe that it is apt for this film.  This one could easily be considered dead before it hits theatres.  The best chance it has at making any of its reported $40 million budget back will be in the international scene.

Prediction: $6 million

Weekend Box Office Predictions: War Dogs, Kubo and the Two Strings, and Ben-Hur

This is a busy weekend in theatres, with three wide release films taking their shot at making money.  Their timing isn't the best, as mid to late August is generally a time of year where movies go to die.  There is a time of transition from summer blockbusters into fall Oscar fare.  An absence of excitement dwells in theatres at this time, and right now War Dogs, Kubo and the Two Strings, and the remake of Ben-Hur are hoping that the general audience numbers swell in their favour.

War Dogs

If you haven't seen the trailers for this movie, it is the 'based on the true story' film about two young men in the United States who end up becoming gun runners.  The man behind the movie, Todd Phillips, is best known for his work on the hugely successful Hangover trilogy.  While they were well received by fans, the attraction faded over the course of the series, with the third one only totally $112 million domestically, a far cry from the $277 million of the first film.

Still, in the modern landscape of comedies, scoring over one hundred million is a great achievement.  The big question is if this movie starring Jonah Hill and Miles Teller has what it takes to reach the same heights.  Hill, while a recognizable name, has not been one to show that he is a big box office draw.  That is not to take away from his great talents, it is just what the numbers show.

On social media, War Dogs has not been tracking well.  As of the time of writing this, it only has just shy of 3,000 tweets for the day.  Considering it opens tonight and that it is geared towards a younger audience, that does not bode well.  What is really interesting is that The Bronze, a movie about a gymnast starring The Big Bang Theory's Melissa Rauch which has not been well received by critics or audiences, has more than twice as many tweets.

The really unfortunate factor facing War Dogs is the fact that it is coming out a week after the animated for adults film, Sausage Party.  There is a good chance that the Seth Rogen starring movie about grocery store food gone wild will hold up well and that means it will dig into the pockets of War Dogs.

Prediction: $18 million


Kubo and the Two Strings

It has been a fairly strong year in terms of family focused movies, so it will take something special to make another movie stand out from the rest of the pack.  Luckily, that is exactly the sort of thing that animation studio Laika is known for.  At a time where all animation seems to be focused on computers, Laika uses brilliant and beautiful stop motion to capture their stories.  The trailers for Kubo give a taste of the visual treats that the film will have.

Unfortunately their films don't set records when it comes to their releases.  The Boxtrolls brought in $17 million during it's opening weekend, which was three million better than Paranorman, which came out in 2012.  The performance in the box office seems to be steady, reaching world wide totals close to the $110 million mark, and I don't see much changing for this one.

Prediction: $17 million


Ben-Hur

There is a lot riding on this movie.  I am not talking about terms of franchise potential or anything like that, but more in the pure financial sense.  It cost roughly one hundred million to make, which is a lot for a film that is being released during the third weekend of August.  The advertising for it has also been pretty intense, so there will be a hefty marketing budget that Paramount will be needing to make up.

If there is something that we have learned from the horror genre in the mid 2000s, it's that remakes of 'classics' do not essentially mean success.  Are audiences really dying for a remake of the original movie that was nominated for over ten Academy Awards?  The big answer, at least what I am thinking based on recent trends of movies, is that they aren't.  Just look at Ghostbusters and the difficulties it had in getting audience members in their seats.  That film is looking down the barrel of a $70 million loss, and I would be surprised if Ben-Hur ends up doing better.

With Morgan Freeman as the only recognizable cast member, there is nothing here that is going to push people to go out and see it.  The reviews for it are currently in the dumps, sitting at 33% on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of writing this.  It will end up keeping some people at home, but the religious material in Ben-Hur may be its saving grace.  Audiences of faith based material generally don't pay attention to the critics.  If this remake is able to really tap into that audience, then it may stand a chance.

Prediction: $10 million

Weekend Box Office Prediction: Suicide Squad and Nine Lives

This is a very important weekend for one studio in particular.  Warner Bros. has been trying to catch up with Disney in regards to super hero movies and the shared universe concept.  It has been a tough act to follow, and the performance of Suicide Squad will be an indicator of just how far they have come, or need to go, to match the earning potential of Marvel movies.


Suicide Squad

There has been a great deal of marketing around this movie.  There have been a slew of trailers, and that branding has paid off well.  It is dominating Twitter, and, at the time of writing this, has had over 216,000 tweets for the day of August 4th.  To put that in perspective, the next most talked about movie on Twitter is Ghostbusters, which has just shy of seven thousand tweets.  It has also been seeing a lot of Facebook likes added to its page, and is one of the year's most talked about movies on social media.

Even though it is performing well on the internet, that doesn't mean much past the opening weekend. What is really going to pay off in the long run is continued word of mouth, rather than just pure anticipation.

But, we are not here to talk about the future of the movie, but rather the opening weekend.  The trailers for the film look to inject a lot of fun into the movie, something that has changed from its original trailer.  I think it is equal parts the effects that Deadpool would have had, showing that there can be comedy and laughs integrated with the action, as well as the fact that Batman v. Superman fell flat on its face after opening weekend.

There was a lot of reshuffling that happened with the movie after Batman v Superman faltered.  What this means is that there have been massive reshoots, and the tone of the film has changed a lot from what it was originally intended.  The final product is not doing well on Rotten Tomatoes, scoring only 29% at the time of writing this.  That will mean little to the opening day, but if it really is a flat movie as the critics suggest, it could pose a problem as the weekend continues and could make the film incredibly front loaded on opening day.

Prediction:  $125 million


Nine Lives

It may seem on the surface that taking big, authentic Hollywood names and placing them in almost any kind of film is the key to success.  That almost feels like the strategy that is being taken with the film Nine Lives.  It casts Kevin Spacey as a father who neglects his family for business aspirations, who is then transformed into a cat by Christopher Walken.  He has a finite number of days to reconnect with his family in the form of a cat, or else he will spend the rest of his life as a feline.  Sounds like a winner.

The problem is that the trailers look incredibly generic, and it has the feel of a straight to video release.  There has been little awareness of this film, as boxoffice.com indicates that the movie doesn't even have twenty thousand Facebook likes.  It has been almost non-existent on Twitter, and that looks to spell doom for the film.  I have watched a number of family features this year, and I have never seen a trailer for Nine Lives screened.  With the awareness low and no critical reviews out yet (which is never a good sign at this point in the release cycle), I see this film bombing and ending up on streaming services before the year is done.

Prediction: $7.5 million

Box Office Predictions: The Good Dinosaur, Creed, and Victor Frankenstein

A few days ago I wrote a post on Creed, a spin off of from the popular (and aged) Rocky franchise.  After talking about the film itself, it is time to take a look through the realm of the mystics and forecast just how it will do in the box office this weekend.  Along with it, Pixar's The Good Dinosaur and Fox's Victor Frankenstein are opening as well.

This is the first time that Pixar has released two films in the same year.  Back in the summer, Inside Out became an enormous success both critically and in the box office.  It scored 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and opened to $90 million.  One could guess that this will be another knock out of the park by Pixar, but there is a chance that it won't be quite as successful as Inside Out.

For starters, it is not fairing as well on Rotten Tomatoes, currently sitting at 81%.  Now, that does not necessarily mean anything for a family feature such as this, but it is interesting to note that the audience rating is pretty much the same, with 80%.  Twitter traffic is also relatively low for a Pixar film, with BoxOffice.com reporting that the Twitter activity mirrors that of Hotel Transylvania 2, which opened to $48 million.

I won't play the standard maths and say that it will translate proportionally to The Good Dinosaur, but I will say that all things considered, it looks like this will not be the holiday weekend breakout film that perhaps Disney was hoping for.  It is Thanksgiving weekend of a fall season that has seen a lot of movies flop, but I don't think that will be the case here.  I expect a decent opening weekend for Pixar's latest.

The Good Dinosaur Opening Weekend Prediction - $63 Million


Let's pretend that the name Sylvester Stallone is not attached to Creed.  His name has meant next to nothing in the box office the past number of years, so it would do a disservice to the potential of this movie to lean on his drawing power.  He does play a role in the film, but it is not by getting in the ring 'one last time,' and instead plays a mentor, but in a movie that looks better than when he mentored Tommy 'Machine' Gunn in the fifth and cartoonish Rocky movie.

This time around, the story is less about Rocky Balboa, and more about the son of Apollo Creed, Adonis Johnson (Michael B. Jordan).  It is hard to base any interest from the general public off of Jordan's name, and let's try to forget for the moment that he was in this summer's (less than) Fantastic Four.  Critics know just how talented he is, and mainstream audiences are about to find out.

Right now it is boasting a tremendous 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and has seen a very effective and emotionally stirring promotional campaign.  Audiences are loving it (giving it 96% on RT), and it is that kind of appreciation that I think could turn into good word of mouth that will give this film a boost over the course of the weekend, allowing it to exceed expectations.

Creed Opening Weekend Prediction - $30 Million


And last we have Victor Frankenstein, a movie whose trailers make it difficult to take the film's chances seriously.  Having stylized movies is a risk, and this one may not pay off at all.  Audiences are currently liking it more than critics, but I doubt that will help out the film.  Stylized reimagining may have worked for Sherlock Holmes, but something tells me that the character of Holmes is much more intriguing to the public than that of Frankenstein.

Victor Frankenstein Opening Weekend Prediction - $7.5 Million

Box Office Predictions

This week Kermit and the gang are back in Muppets Most Wanted and attempt to follow up on the huge success of the 2011 movie, The Muppets.  Will it be able to make an attempt at first place in the box office against the likes of the young adult geared film Divergent?  I break down various factors about both films and make my predictions as to how well they will do this weekend over The International House of Spicer.