Thursday, April 20, 2017

Box Office Predictions: 'The Promise' and 'Unforgettable'

It's a whole new week, and the easiest thing to predict about this upcoming weekend is that The Fate of the Furious will repeat as the number one movie in theatres.  How much it drops is anyone's guess, although I would estimate somewhere in the region of 58% or so.  This has been a year where there haven't been as many wild second weekend drops, but I don't see Furious having the lasting power that some other movies have seen.  It is an all out race to see who gets second place.  Will it be The Boss Baby, or will it be one of the newcomer movies?  There are four movies opening this weekend, but only two that are coming out in over two thousand theatres, so I will be taking a look at those two.

Starring Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon, The Promise shows the power to catch people's attention and make them consider going to the theatres to purchase admission.  All three are stunning talents and have wonderful careers ahead of them.  The story, which is set near the end of the Ottoman Empire, is a love triangle between the three.  If you were to believe reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, it is not necessarily the best feature of the movie, with one critic referring it to Pearl Harbour, and another calling it 'stock romantic melodrama.'

With Furious 8, the reviews didn't seem to hurt it, and it wouldn't for a movie of that style.  However, for movies targeted at mature audiences, reviews do matter.  At least the Rotten Tomato score matters.  As of writing this, it is sitting at 41% on Rotten Tomatoes, with only 24% from the top critics.  This really hurts the chances of The Promise, as its target audience is more likely to shy away from this offering.

The Promise Opening Weekend Prediction - $3.5 million

The other film that is opening this weekend, Unforgettable, is sitting at an even lower percentage on Rotten Tomatoes.  Currently it has a rating of 32%, but it is unlikely going to harm it as much as The Promise.  This is a thriller that is looking to target a younger audience who may not be scared off by poor critical reception.

One thing that they could be scared off by, however, is the fact that this movie looks a little formulaic.  There is a love lost, revenge taken, and screams to be had along the way.  The trailer tells the plot and seems to leave little other than the climax up to the imagination.

The film does have a few recognizable names in Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson.  Heigl has generally been in movies that have a ten million dollar plus opening weekend, with a few exceptions. This may be another one of those exceptions.  The current social media buzz is fairly low for what it should be, and this could be an indicator that the film will have a difficult time getting out of the gates.

Unforgettable Opening Weekend Prediction - $8 million

If The Boss Baby holds up as expected it should have no problem remaining in second place this weekend.  This is a strong holding movie that continues to impress in the box office.  It has now gotten over $300 million world wide, and has a little legs left in it.

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I'm smarter than a bat. I know this because I caught the little jerk bat that got in my apartment, before immediately and inadvertently bringing him back in. So maybe I'm not smarter than a bat.