Thursday, April 27, 2017

Box Office Predictions: 'The Circle'

We are currently in the run up to the massive summer blockbuster season.  As is the case this year, there has been a lull in the movies offered and the prospects for big box office successes.  The main wide release this weekend is The Circle, and it will be trying to break out with big numbers while running against the still popular Fate of the Furious.

Based off of a best selling novel of the same name, The Circle stars Emma Watson, John Boyega, and Tom Hanks.  It has plenty of star power, but as we saw last weekend with The Promise, star power in a movie means absolutely nothing these days.  We have even talked about it on The Movie Breakdown podcast.  Marquee names just don't draw the same as they used to.

There is a chance that I am wrong about the name value.  Emma Watson has come off of the massive hit Beauty and the Beast, and John Boyega made his mainstream appearance in The Force Awakens.  These are two young names that can move the needle.  Tom Hanks is a Hollywood staple, but that hasn't meant he is a huge draw.  In 2012, Cloud Atlas made only $9 million its opening weekend, and Hanks' latest film, Inferno, made just shy of $15 million.  His being attached to this film will help a lot, but it will not offer enough to battle against The Fate of the Furious.

So, that aside, lets take a look at the other factors that The Circle has going for it.  It has name recognition from the book, which always helps.  There are some examples of movies with name recognition not doing so well, however.  This is especially the case when it is a film appealing to the young adult crowd.  There is a long list of movies that failed to live up to the book's expectations, and The Circle could be another one of them.

With a trailer that doesn't speak well to the heart of the movie, it could be something that is easily missed out on by audiences.  As of the time of writing this, The Circle is barely in the top ten most tweeted about movies, and that is something that is worrying considering the young audience that the film is geared towards.  Currently on Rotten tomatoes it has a percentage of 50%, which could steer older crowds who were keen on seeing a Tom Hanks movie away.

The Circle Opening Weekend Prediction - $12.5 Million

1 comment:

  1. I think star power does still matter, but it is mixed in with efective marketing that sells the star along with a story that people want to see that star in. In defense of Hanks as a draw, 'Cloud Atlas' was on the lower side of wide release but also had odd looking trailers that did not really make use of its star power (it isn't like it was sold on Hanks). 'Inferno' was a legit flop that Hanks power failed to elevate but I put the blame on a franchise that people no longer cared about with a trailer that showed an awful looking movie. As for 'The Circle' I'd say the marketing has been really weak again, has not made use of its star power, and based on a story that was more effective when making use of David Eggers' engaging writing style. It looks diadactic and not really prodding new ground about social media and technology, which makes me think it will be totally flat with the younger crowd. I think you are being generous with your prediction on the gross. What do I now, I thought 'Unforgettable" would be a hit.


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I'm smarter than a bat. I know this because I caught the little jerk bat that got in my apartment, before immediately and inadvertently bringing him back in. So maybe I'm not smarter than a bat.