The Crash of Ben-Hur

Sword and sandal movies are not necessarily hits at the box office, but for some reason there was an attempt to bring a remake of Ben-Hur into theatres on a budget of $100 million.  While that does not seem like a lot of money for a blockbuster during the summer time, it is a number that far outweighed the interest of the movie, and was perhaps a mis-calculation of MGM and Paramount.  It is less of a hit by Paramount, who only put up twenty percent of the funding for the movie.

The budget is very similar to what Paramount put up in 2014 for Hercules, a movie starring Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson, that brought in close to $250 million world wide.  If they had hopes that Ben-Hur would do similar numbers, they were vastly mistaken.  It lacked the sort of drawing star power that Hercules had, as well as aiming at a vastly different demographic, one that doesn't necessarily flood to theatres.

That demographic is the much sought after Christian market.  They were ripe for the plucking with Mel Gibson's The Passion of the Christ, which made over $600 million on a budget of $30 million.  Ever since then, there have been attempts to harness the same sort of success, as studios have been trying to dole out biblical and faith based stories in hopes of seeing the green.

In 2014, there were a glut of films trying to break into that demographic.  We had big budget movies like Darren Aronofsky's Noah (which made $362 million world wide on a budget of $125), and fellow acclaimed director Ridley Scott's Exodus: Gods and Kings ($268 million on a $140 million budget).  The former was a success, although there was an intense battle between the film maker and the studios over the version that should be shown, as the executives were afraid that it would not penetrate the Christian market as hoped.  The director won, and the result was a film that fared well.

There were also a smattering of lower budget attempts that year.  The most profitable was God's Not Dead, which had a production budget of $2 million and made $62 million across the globe (the majority of that was from North America).  There was also Heaven is for Real.  It starred Greg Kennear and was directed by Randall Wallace.  It was able to barely break $100 million world wide on a budget of $12 million.  And, if I haven't mentioned enough already, there was the adaption of The Bible mini-series from the History Channel, which got repackaged into a horrible looking film called Son of God.  It made close to $60 million domestically on an unreported budget.

So, have any of these films that I mentioned seemed as though there was proof that a large budget film seeking the Christian audience would work?  Only one comes to mind, and that was Noah, the film made by a man considered by many to be an atheist, and a film that left a lot of the Christian audiences upset at liberties taken with the story, as imagery and symbolism were used to tell the spiritual aspects of the narrative.  Oddly enough, there wasn't the same kind of backlash from Exodus: Gods and Kings, which did everything it could to actually leave God out of the film.

Looking at the evidence from the box office, it is easy to understand that there is no such thing as the Golden Christian Egg, the movie that will get everyone out of their homes and into the theatres.  What happened with The Passion of the Christ was lightening in a bottle.  It tapped into culture, and those sorts of things, when re-attempted, can easily come off as forced.

The team behind Ben-Hur, most notably Mark Burnett and Roma Downey (the couple behind many faith based projects), were looking to bring a faith based element to the film in the hopes that it would get the audiences out.  They could have looked at the two previously mentioned blockbuster attempts to see that even with established and acclaimed directors and star studded casts it is hit or miss.  Ben-Hur had neither of those things, unless you consider the director of Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter a recognizable and acclaimed name.

There was little happening for this movie that was going to make it stand out.  It had to rely on the merits of the original in its marketing.  The target demographic never even saw the faith based elements in the trailers.  Perhaps that was a big miss.  In the end, the movie ended up servicing a much older audience than was possibly intended (95% of the movie goers were over the age of 25), and disappointed on critical and financial levels.  It may come as a surprise to MGM and Paramount, but, from the lessons of history, it was actually very easy to predict.

Weekend Box Office Predictions: War Dogs, Kubo and the Two Strings, and Ben-Hur

This is a busy weekend in theatres, with three wide release films taking their shot at making money.  Their timing isn't the best, as mid to late August is generally a time of year where movies go to die.  There is a time of transition from summer blockbusters into fall Oscar fare.  An absence of excitement dwells in theatres at this time, and right now War Dogs, Kubo and the Two Strings, and the remake of Ben-Hur are hoping that the general audience numbers swell in their favour.

War Dogs

If you haven't seen the trailers for this movie, it is the 'based on the true story' film about two young men in the United States who end up becoming gun runners.  The man behind the movie, Todd Phillips, is best known for his work on the hugely successful Hangover trilogy.  While they were well received by fans, the attraction faded over the course of the series, with the third one only totally $112 million domestically, a far cry from the $277 million of the first film.

Still, in the modern landscape of comedies, scoring over one hundred million is a great achievement.  The big question is if this movie starring Jonah Hill and Miles Teller has what it takes to reach the same heights.  Hill, while a recognizable name, has not been one to show that he is a big box office draw.  That is not to take away from his great talents, it is just what the numbers show.

On social media, War Dogs has not been tracking well.  As of the time of writing this, it only has just shy of 3,000 tweets for the day.  Considering it opens tonight and that it is geared towards a younger audience, that does not bode well.  What is really interesting is that The Bronze, a movie about a gymnast starring The Big Bang Theory's Melissa Rauch which has not been well received by critics or audiences, has more than twice as many tweets.

The really unfortunate factor facing War Dogs is the fact that it is coming out a week after the animated for adults film, Sausage Party.  There is a good chance that the Seth Rogen starring movie about grocery store food gone wild will hold up well and that means it will dig into the pockets of War Dogs.

Prediction: $18 million


Kubo and the Two Strings

It has been a fairly strong year in terms of family focused movies, so it will take something special to make another movie stand out from the rest of the pack.  Luckily, that is exactly the sort of thing that animation studio Laika is known for.  At a time where all animation seems to be focused on computers, Laika uses brilliant and beautiful stop motion to capture their stories.  The trailers for Kubo give a taste of the visual treats that the film will have.

Unfortunately their films don't set records when it comes to their releases.  The Boxtrolls brought in $17 million during it's opening weekend, which was three million better than Paranorman, which came out in 2012.  The performance in the box office seems to be steady, reaching world wide totals close to the $110 million mark, and I don't see much changing for this one.

Prediction: $17 million


Ben-Hur

There is a lot riding on this movie.  I am not talking about terms of franchise potential or anything like that, but more in the pure financial sense.  It cost roughly one hundred million to make, which is a lot for a film that is being released during the third weekend of August.  The advertising for it has also been pretty intense, so there will be a hefty marketing budget that Paramount will be needing to make up.

If there is something that we have learned from the horror genre in the mid 2000s, it's that remakes of 'classics' do not essentially mean success.  Are audiences really dying for a remake of the original movie that was nominated for over ten Academy Awards?  The big answer, at least what I am thinking based on recent trends of movies, is that they aren't.  Just look at Ghostbusters and the difficulties it had in getting audience members in their seats.  That film is looking down the barrel of a $70 million loss, and I would be surprised if Ben-Hur ends up doing better.

With Morgan Freeman as the only recognizable cast member, there is nothing here that is going to push people to go out and see it.  The reviews for it are currently in the dumps, sitting at 33% on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of writing this.  It will end up keeping some people at home, but the religious material in Ben-Hur may be its saving grace.  Audiences of faith based material generally don't pay attention to the critics.  If this remake is able to really tap into that audience, then it may stand a chance.

Prediction: $10 million