Box Office Predictions: 'Wonder Woman' and 'Captain Underpants'

I find myself in a very tricky position this week.  Wonder Woman has finally come, and with that there are a number of factors that must be weighed in to get an understanding of where it might fall in the box office.  I liked last weekend better.  It was much more straight forward, and it was easy to get my mind around possibilities for the wide releases.  This is the part of predicting that sucks.  Writing away and having no clue of what the end result will be until it is time to type it.

Before I get to the positives around Wonder Woman, I should start off with the elephant in the room.  That is the Warner Bros' DC shared universe.  This collection of movies (which so far has three entries) is far from organic.  It is forced, and the films have reflected that.  They have not been solid entities and have seen huge diminishes in their first to second week earnings.  Warner Bros should be a little scared.  They are very obviously attempting to mirror Marvel, but Marvel went about it in a different way.  They made singular movies and then strung them together for The Avengers.  It was a process that was a lot more free-flowing than this attempt to play catch up.

The big question is, has the quality of the previous DC movies caused fans to be cautious of Wonder Woman?  I think it has.  There are die-hard fanboys that would think this is not the case, but history has shown that the quality of films catch up on the creators and that good will is not unending.  Zack Snyder's bleak version of the Superman movies was something that Suicide Squad tried to break free from, and yet those attempts couldn't save it from falling 67% into its second weekend.  The die may have already been cast on this shared universe attempt, and people may very well be staying away from this latest film.

That being said, the previous movies did not have the same sort of acclaim heading into their debuts.  Sadly, this is the first 'fresh' DC movie on Rotten Tomatoes since the attempt to create the shared universe.  What Wonder Woman appears to have going for it is that it is actually a good movie and not just something that is created to make more films off of.  Currently it is sitting at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.  This is sure to help ease the concerns of audience members that have already been burned by DC and Warner Bros.  While it may not have the biggest impact on the film's opening weekend, it is sure to help its longevity in the box office.

While critical reviews have proven to not be a solid indicator of how a superhero movie will do, I will now turn to what is probably the most telling indicator of the excitement around Wonder Woman.  Currently, for Thursday, June 1st, there have been 139,775 tweets about this movie.  That is a lot of energy to be circulating around a film.  It is a sign that there could be a lot of hunger towards a movie that centres around a female protagonist.  It is these Twitter numbers that show we could have a break out hit on our hands.  While the studio is anticipating an opening weekend of $70-75 million, this could prove to be ultra-conservative, and I see Wonder Woman performing a lot better than that.

Wonder Woman Opening Weekend Prediction - $115 million

Opening up alongside of Wonder Woman is Fox's Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie.  It will have a bit of franchise appeal to those who are familiar with the books, and its hope is to capitalize on the recent lack of animated family fare to attract new fans.  The last animated film in theatres was Smurfs: The Lost Village on April 7.  This is a long time to go between family films, and the drought may be on the side of Captain Underpants here.

The unfortunate thing for Mr. Underpants is that there are a few highly anticipated animated movies soon to hit theatres.  In two weeks we have Cars 3, and then two weekends after that it is Despicable Me 3.  It could be the case that there are families that are waiting for those two films to come out.  Taking a family out to the theatre is no cheap activity, and viewers may be watching their wallets for the more recognizable names later in the month.

While activity on Flixster has been comparable to where The Boss Baby was leading into its opening weekend, other indicators are not there to prove that it will be as popular.  To give you an example of what I mean, The Boss Baby has over 1.3 million likes on Facebook.  Captain Underpants, on the other hand, has only 66 thousand.  That is quite the difference, and it shows that this film is in for a healthy, yet not overly impressive, opening weekend.

Captain Underpants Opening Weekend Prediction - $35 million