Box Office Predictions: 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales' and 'Baywatch'

There is a saying, 'better late than never.'  This must have been concocted by someone who had a notorious time being on schedule for things.  There is some truth to the saying, so I will stand by it.  While my predictions piece should have been written yesterday, there is no time like the present to make up for my lack of motivation.

The main draw this weekend is Johnny Depp returning as Captain Jack Sparrow, in Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.  There is a lot of love for this character, and that excitement for a return could very well turn into box office dollars.  This is something that I would love to see as I picked it as part of my pool for the summer blockbuster contest held on The Movie Breakdown Podcast.  I want people to remember the charm and mesmerizing performance of Depp, pay no attention to the last Pirates movie, pay no attention to Rotten Tomatoes, and go out to see this film during its opening weekend.

However, that plea may be falling on deaf ears.  There is a very real and thriving beast in the movie landscape, and that creature is known as franchise fatigue.  It strikes its tentacles at almost everything in sight, bringing down returns with each successive outing of a property.  There are some exceptions.  The second Hunger Games performed better than the first.  Most notably is the Iron Man franchise, where each film outdid the previous, at least as far as opening weekends went.

I am doubtful that we will see that happening here.  The first three Pirates movies each made more than the previous (both in opening weekend and domestic grosses), but there was a significant drop with the first film outside of the trilogy, On Stranger Tides.  It opened to $90 million, compared to the $135 million opening weekend of Dead Man's Chest five years prior.  Once again, we have a solid lapse between instalments, and I cannot help but think that the curse of the drop is going to live strong here as well.  They are bringing back Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley to reprise their old roles, but has too much harm already been done to render this moot?

I think so.  The film mainly relies on the role of Johnny Depp and his ability to draw in quirky roles.  The problem is that audiences have now been there and seen that.  Two of the previous attempts to cash in on this have been failures.  The Lone Ranger (which has almost the exact same Rotten Tomatoes percentage as Dead Men Tell No Tales) opened just shy of $30 million.  A few years later, Alice Through the Looking Glass (which shares the same 30% rating on Rotten Tomatoes as Dead Men) opened to a measly $26 million on a budget of $170 million.  I think we can say that after other flops like Transcendence and Mortdecai Depp is no longer the magnet that he was in the mid 2000s.

The biggest crowd that will be attending theatres to see Jack Sparrow this weekend will undoubtedly be hardcore fans of the franchise.  Even then, we once again come across franchise fatigue.  Are people really going to be wanting to shell out the dollars and see the film, especially since it is rather poorly reviewed?  This, with an insane budget of $230, could be a shipwreck and the second blockbuster failure of the season.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Opening Weekend Prediction - $60 million

For fans of the television show Baywatch, they can finally be fully satisfied as the film comes out in theatres this weekend.  However, they may be a little disappointed if they are expecting it to be similar to the television show.  Judging by the trailers, it is more in line with the kind of remake that 21 Jump Street or even CHIPs was.  It is revamped with an R-rating, and is more using the intellectual property as a catapult for a film.

This worked out really well for 21 Jump Street, but not so great for CHIPs.  Audiences loved the Jump Street movie, as did the critics.  It had a healthy $36 million opening weekend, and the sequel had a massive $57 million opening take.  It shows that the format could work, but what really helped out with this franchise was the fact that it was grounded by solid movies and had adequate star power to propel them to success.

Star power is one thing that Baywatch has.  Say what you will about the drawing power of Zac Efron (or the lack thereof if you are looking at the $1.7 million opening of We Are Your Friends), the real showcase here is Dwayne Johnson.  He hasn't seen a movie debut at less than $20 million since 2013's Snitch.  Lots has happened between then and now, with Johnson being one of the premier names in Hollywood.  It has come with lots of work, and the man has now arrived at the pinnacle.

While lack of critical reception is not always a death blow to comedies, it is difficult to look at the 19% on Rotten Tomatoes and think that it may not be a factor.  If anything, it is a sign that word of mouth coming out of the movie will be harmful to it.  In the age of social media, this can be a real killer.  Thankfully for Johnson and company, the movie has an audience approval rating of 70% on Rotten Tomatoes.  This could mean a less front loaded opening weekend, but I am also not predicting that it will be a massive success.

Baywatch Opening Weekend Prediction - $28 million