Box Office Predictions: 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales' and 'Baywatch'

There is a saying, 'better late than never.'  This must have been concocted by someone who had a notorious time being on schedule for things.  There is some truth to the saying, so I will stand by it.  While my predictions piece should have been written yesterday, there is no time like the present to make up for my lack of motivation.

The main draw this weekend is Johnny Depp returning as Captain Jack Sparrow, in Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.  There is a lot of love for this character, and that excitement for a return could very well turn into box office dollars.  This is something that I would love to see as I picked it as part of my pool for the summer blockbuster contest held on The Movie Breakdown Podcast.  I want people to remember the charm and mesmerizing performance of Depp, pay no attention to the last Pirates movie, pay no attention to Rotten Tomatoes, and go out to see this film during its opening weekend.

However, that plea may be falling on deaf ears.  There is a very real and thriving beast in the movie landscape, and that creature is known as franchise fatigue.  It strikes its tentacles at almost everything in sight, bringing down returns with each successive outing of a property.  There are some exceptions.  The second Hunger Games performed better than the first.  Most notably is the Iron Man franchise, where each film outdid the previous, at least as far as opening weekends went.

I am doubtful that we will see that happening here.  The first three Pirates movies each made more than the previous (both in opening weekend and domestic grosses), but there was a significant drop with the first film outside of the trilogy, On Stranger Tides.  It opened to $90 million, compared to the $135 million opening weekend of Dead Man's Chest five years prior.  Once again, we have a solid lapse between instalments, and I cannot help but think that the curse of the drop is going to live strong here as well.  They are bringing back Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley to reprise their old roles, but has too much harm already been done to render this moot?

I think so.  The film mainly relies on the role of Johnny Depp and his ability to draw in quirky roles.  The problem is that audiences have now been there and seen that.  Two of the previous attempts to cash in on this have been failures.  The Lone Ranger (which has almost the exact same Rotten Tomatoes percentage as Dead Men Tell No Tales) opened just shy of $30 million.  A few years later, Alice Through the Looking Glass (which shares the same 30% rating on Rotten Tomatoes as Dead Men) opened to a measly $26 million on a budget of $170 million.  I think we can say that after other flops like Transcendence and Mortdecai Depp is no longer the magnet that he was in the mid 2000s.

The biggest crowd that will be attending theatres to see Jack Sparrow this weekend will undoubtedly be hardcore fans of the franchise.  Even then, we once again come across franchise fatigue.  Are people really going to be wanting to shell out the dollars and see the film, especially since it is rather poorly reviewed?  This, with an insane budget of $230, could be a shipwreck and the second blockbuster failure of the season.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Opening Weekend Prediction - $60 million

For fans of the television show Baywatch, they can finally be fully satisfied as the film comes out in theatres this weekend.  However, they may be a little disappointed if they are expecting it to be similar to the television show.  Judging by the trailers, it is more in line with the kind of remake that 21 Jump Street or even CHIPs was.  It is revamped with an R-rating, and is more using the intellectual property as a catapult for a film.

This worked out really well for 21 Jump Street, but not so great for CHIPs.  Audiences loved the Jump Street movie, as did the critics.  It had a healthy $36 million opening weekend, and the sequel had a massive $57 million opening take.  It shows that the format could work, but what really helped out with this franchise was the fact that it was grounded by solid movies and had adequate star power to propel them to success.

Star power is one thing that Baywatch has.  Say what you will about the drawing power of Zac Efron (or the lack thereof if you are looking at the $1.7 million opening of We Are Your Friends), the real showcase here is Dwayne Johnson.  He hasn't seen a movie debut at less than $20 million since 2013's Snitch.  Lots has happened between then and now, with Johnson being one of the premier names in Hollywood.  It has come with lots of work, and the man has now arrived at the pinnacle.

While lack of critical reception is not always a death blow to comedies, it is difficult to look at the 19% on Rotten Tomatoes and think that it may not be a factor.  If anything, it is a sign that word of mouth coming out of the movie will be harmful to it.  In the age of social media, this can be a real killer.  Thankfully for Johnson and company, the movie has an audience approval rating of 70% on Rotten Tomatoes.  This could mean a less front loaded opening weekend, but I am also not predicting that it will be a massive success.

Baywatch Opening Weekend Prediction - $28 million

Neighbors

Some people flock to raunchy R-rated comedies in theatres, while I am the type of person who would rather just stand on the side of the road and wait for them to pass.  I don’t think I am a prude (I joke a lot about farts and bums) and am tolerable to a lot of the edgy elements that cinema can hold.  The way I see it, if it tells a story and stays true to what it is then I will let it be.  That does not really mean I will personally enjoy it.

There are a few in this genre that end up winning my heart over.  I absolutely loved the cleverly written and directed 21 Jump Street, and was very surprised when I had a great time watching The Hangover and The Hangover 3 (I hope you notice that I did not reference the second Hangover movie).  So, for the sake of being open minded (and because of the fact that I needed to see it for review on an upcoming podcast) I went to the theatre to take in the latest R-rated comedy, Neighbors.

The film is about a young married couple with a baby who put all of their money into buying a house.  Seth Rogan plays Mac, and his wife Kelly is played by Rose Byrne.  When I think of Seth Rogan, I think of a lot of raunchy comedies that I never really laughed at (excluding This is the End), and when I think of Rose Byrne I cannot get the image of her continually gaping blank stare that she had in Insidious.  Life for this happy couple, who still want to be youthful and hold onto their days of partying, takes a turn when a fraternity purchases the house next door.  They then find themselves worried about the noise, but they also don’t want to come off as uncool old people to the young college partiers.  There.  That is the basis of the plot.

I suppose, if I am talking about the plot, I should mention that the president of the fraternity, played by Zac Efron, ends up getting more than a little peeved at the attempts of his neighbours to keep the noise to a minimum, and a back and forth battle begins between the two households, each escalating events further and further.

There were indeed a number of times where I was laughing.  The movie started out with the comedy being dialogue based, and the comedic timing and delivery of Rogan was put on display quickly.  Rose Byrne, whom I had never pictured as being in a comedy, was the darling of the movie for me.  She had a great energy and was able to keep up pace with the well-seasoned and developed skills of Rogan.  She really opened my eyes to her potential, and I am so desperately hoping to see her name attached to comedies in the future.

Zac Efron also opened my eyes to his abilities and the possible future that may be in front of him.  I am sure that many a girl who had crushes on the young heart throb wanted to see the movie because of promotional material promising scenes of his cut body being on display (in a similar way that The Other Woman made sure to promote Kate Upton in a bikini).  Me, I do not have a crush on the young man, but I have now put him on my radar of actors to follow now.  His physically enhanced body will open some doors for him, and hopefully he does not end up taking regrettable roles which spiral him around in the void of mid-2000s Matthew McConaughey type films.  There were moments of charm, nuance, and charisma that show he may be able to be groomed into modern era McConaughey roles.  Alright, alright, alright, back to talking about the film.

However, of course there had to be a ‘however,’ the established comedic tone of verbal and situational jokes abruptly switched throughout the film, relying at times on very slap-stick and over the top, unrealistic moments.  Both slap-stick and unrealistic comedy is fine, but it works if it serves the unified feel of a film, and in Neighbors it did not.  Sometimes laughing, sometimes face palming, I sensed that this film was an intoxicated driver that could not stay within the lines and would get disastrously close to ending up in the ditch.

I believe that a large portion of the problem comes from the script, which felt disheveled and erratic.  The writers, Brendan O’Brien and Andrew J Cohen, were both first timers to writing a feature film, and I am not willing to write them off as poor script writers, but rather just having an unfortunate start.  They did try and create back story and motivation for the characters, as well as humanize both sides of this conflict, and they get points for that.  Sadly, because of the ever shifting landscape of the style of comedy and feel, you quickly forget any understanding of the principals involved.  I bet there are a lot of people who may not see the issues the same as myself, but after the first twenty minutes of the film I was lost in a world of shifting realities and jarring tonal transitions.

There were a number of laughs, which meant it was not a complete waste of time.  With that being said, I cannot downplay the fact that I was incredibly bored for the final half hour, laughing only from time to time, and generally not caring about any outcome other than merely a quick one.  If you are a bigger fan of the R-rated comedy than I am, you may enjoy a lot of the humour that I did not and you may think that I am just too ‘conservative’ to enjoy the film.  That would not be a true assumption.  If a movie, of any genre, is done in a coherent way that that shows talent towards its purpose, I will appreciate it fully.  This film just simply was not that.

Rating – 2.5 out of 4 stars