Thursday, May 18, 2017

Box Office Predictions: 'Alien: Covenant,' 'Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul,' and 'Everything, Everything'

There are some great advantages to living in beautiful cottage country Ontario.  The pace of life is much more relaxing, there is beauty to be seen everywhere, and the people are extremely nice.  There is a trade off, though.  It has taken me away from a local movie theatre where I could watch weekly releases.  That is a major downside, especially on the weekend of the latest in the Alien series.  I am not the only person who is geeked up over Alien: Covenant, there are many.  But are these loyal multitudes enough to propel it to overtake Guardians of the Galaxy from the number one spot?

There really are a lot of people who were brought excitedly into the world of Ridley Scott's Alien and the James Cameron follow up, Aliens.  These people, like me, are longing for something new to add to the mythology.  It needs to be something of quality, though.  The fourth Alien movie made me sour on the franchise and left me wishing that it had been left dead after Aliens.

And then came along Prometheus.  It was set in the same universe as the Alien movies, but did not focus on the xenomorphs.  This, as well as a narrative that left many questions, did not completely satiate the audiences.  It was a good performer, taking in $51 million during its opening weekend.  This is solid ground for Covenant to work off of, but the main question that has yet to be answered is how many people were turned off by Prometheus?

What really helps this film is that it has Ridley Scott in the director's chair, the man responsible for the franchise.  Critics are so far liking it well enough, with it currently sitting at 76% on Rotten Tomatoes.  That should be a high enough score to keep people from being scared away from this movie.  Social media has been solid, with Alien: Covenant being the second most tweeted about movie right now.  The anticipation is there, but I can't help but think that it won't make as much as Prometheus did.  It will still be a solid opening weekend, just not as hot.

Alien: Covenant Opening Weekend Prediction - $40 million

Also opening this weekend is Fox's Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul.  I have to admit right here that I am not too familiar with this franchise, and that is by choice.  It never appealed to me, but that was alright because I am not the target market.  The latest movie, if it is anything like the trailer makes it look like, could be a train wreck of a film.  With a score of 23% on Rotten Tomatoes, it could be the case.

The problem with this franchise's earning potential, apart from looking appalling, is the fact that the franchise has already come and gone.  It released movies in 2010, 2011, and 2012, with each film making less as the series went on.  The latest film, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, opened to $14 million.  I am predicting a large drop from this, and I see The Long Haul opening to just over half of Dog Days.  Movies in franchises lose their steam, and this one appears to be coming after the fans of the original movies are already grown out of the demographic.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul Opening Weekend Prediction - $7.5 million

Lastly, we have the young adult movie, Everything, Everything.  Time and time again, studios have tried to rail their way into the YA market and bring home something successful that rivals the actioner The Hunger Games, or the drama The Fault in Our Stars.  So many movies have been a bust, and this could be another one of those films that just sort of comes and goes.

This movie is based off of the book of the same name, written by Nicola Yoon.  It should be able to pull out some of the book's fans, but that is not a given for box office success.  Earlier this year, Before I Fall (which is a YA movie also based on a book) opened to $4.7 million.  The lesson to learn from that movie is that it is a fickle market place, and a recognizable name doesn't instantly translate into money.

Everything, Everything Opening Weekend Prediction - $7 million

1 comment:

  1. I read an article that kids were thrown off by the entirely new cast of 'Wimpy Kid.' Reboots may not be the most solid strategy for that demographic that likely has a stronger connection to the material. This thing looks destined to be a flop on its 22 million dollar budget, but luckily, it is coming out the same month as what is on pace to be one of the biggest bumbs of the year, 'Arty the Street Smart King,' so no one will really remember it. 'Everything, Everything' had a far more modest budget of 10 million and makes me think of those days there was diveristy in the theatres and not everything was aspiring to be a major hit. For what it is, I think it will do just fine.

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