We are currently in the run up to the massive summer blockbuster season. As is the case this year, there has been a lull in the movies offered and the prospects for big box office successes. The main wide release this weekend is The Circle, and it will be trying to break out with big numbers while running against the still popular Fate of the Furious.
Based off of a best selling novel of the same name, The Circle stars Emma Watson, John Boyega, and Tom Hanks. It has plenty of star power, but as we saw last weekend with The Promise, star power in a movie means absolutely nothing these days. We have even talked about it on The Movie Breakdown podcast. Marquee names just don't draw the same as they used to.
There is a chance that I am wrong about the name value. Emma Watson has come off of the massive hit Beauty and the Beast, and John Boyega made his mainstream appearance in The Force Awakens. These are two young names that can move the needle. Tom Hanks is a Hollywood staple, but that hasn't meant he is a huge draw. In 2012, Cloud Atlas made only $9 million its opening weekend, and Hanks' latest film, Inferno, made just shy of $15 million. His being attached to this film will help a lot, but it will not offer enough to battle against The Fate of the Furious.
So, that aside, lets take a look at the other factors that The Circle has going for it. It has name recognition from the book, which always helps. There are some examples of movies with name recognition not doing so well, however. This is especially the case when it is a film appealing to the young adult crowd. There is a long list of movies that failed to live up to the book's expectations, and The Circle could be another one of them.
With a trailer that doesn't speak well to the heart of the movie, it could be something that is easily missed out on by audiences. As of the time of writing this, The Circle is barely in the top ten most tweeted about movies, and that is something that is worrying considering the young audience that the film is geared towards. Currently on Rotten tomatoes it has a percentage of 50%, which could steer older crowds who were keen on seeing a Tom Hanks movie away.
The Circle Opening Weekend Prediction - $12.5 Million
Thursday, April 27, 2017
Thursday, April 20, 2017
Box Office Predictions: 'The Promise' and 'Unforgettable'
It's a whole new week, and the easiest thing to predict about this upcoming weekend is that The Fate of the Furious will repeat as the number one movie in theatres. How much it drops is anyone's guess, although I would estimate somewhere in the region of 58% or so. This has been a year where there haven't been as many wild second weekend drops, but I don't see Furious having the lasting power that some other movies have seen. It is an all out race to see who gets second place. Will it be The Boss Baby, or will it be one of the newcomer movies? There are four movies opening this weekend, but only two that are coming out in over two thousand theatres, so I will be taking a look at those two.
Starring Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon, The Promise shows the power to catch people's attention and make them consider going to the theatres to purchase admission. All three are stunning talents and have wonderful careers ahead of them. The story, which is set near the end of the Ottoman Empire, is a love triangle between the three. If you were to believe reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, it is not necessarily the best feature of the movie, with one critic referring it to Pearl Harbour, and another calling it 'stock romantic melodrama.'
With Furious 8, the reviews didn't seem to hurt it, and it wouldn't for a movie of that style. However, for movies targeted at mature audiences, reviews do matter. At least the Rotten Tomato score matters. As of writing this, it is sitting at 41% on Rotten Tomatoes, with only 24% from the top critics. This really hurts the chances of The Promise, as its target audience is more likely to shy away from this offering.
The Promise Opening Weekend Prediction - $3.5 million
The other film that is opening this weekend, Unforgettable, is sitting at an even lower percentage on Rotten Tomatoes. Currently it has a rating of 32%, but it is unlikely going to harm it as much as The Promise. This is a thriller that is looking to target a younger audience who may not be scared off by poor critical reception.
One thing that they could be scared off by, however, is the fact that this movie looks a little formulaic. There is a love lost, revenge taken, and screams to be had along the way. The trailer tells the plot and seems to leave little other than the climax up to the imagination.
The film does have a few recognizable names in Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson. Heigl has generally been in movies that have a ten million dollar plus opening weekend, with a few exceptions. This may be another one of those exceptions. The current social media buzz is fairly low for what it should be, and this could be an indicator that the film will have a difficult time getting out of the gates.
Unforgettable Opening Weekend Prediction - $8 million
If The Boss Baby holds up as expected it should have no problem remaining in second place this weekend. This is a strong holding movie that continues to impress in the box office. It has now gotten over $300 million world wide, and has a little legs left in it.
Starring Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon, The Promise shows the power to catch people's attention and make them consider going to the theatres to purchase admission. All three are stunning talents and have wonderful careers ahead of them. The story, which is set near the end of the Ottoman Empire, is a love triangle between the three. If you were to believe reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, it is not necessarily the best feature of the movie, with one critic referring it to Pearl Harbour, and another calling it 'stock romantic melodrama.'
With Furious 8, the reviews didn't seem to hurt it, and it wouldn't for a movie of that style. However, for movies targeted at mature audiences, reviews do matter. At least the Rotten Tomato score matters. As of writing this, it is sitting at 41% on Rotten Tomatoes, with only 24% from the top critics. This really hurts the chances of The Promise, as its target audience is more likely to shy away from this offering.
The Promise Opening Weekend Prediction - $3.5 million
The other film that is opening this weekend, Unforgettable, is sitting at an even lower percentage on Rotten Tomatoes. Currently it has a rating of 32%, but it is unlikely going to harm it as much as The Promise. This is a thriller that is looking to target a younger audience who may not be scared off by poor critical reception.
One thing that they could be scared off by, however, is the fact that this movie looks a little formulaic. There is a love lost, revenge taken, and screams to be had along the way. The trailer tells the plot and seems to leave little other than the climax up to the imagination.
The film does have a few recognizable names in Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson. Heigl has generally been in movies that have a ten million dollar plus opening weekend, with a few exceptions. This may be another one of those exceptions. The current social media buzz is fairly low for what it should be, and this could be an indicator that the film will have a difficult time getting out of the gates.
Unforgettable Opening Weekend Prediction - $8 million
If The Boss Baby holds up as expected it should have no problem remaining in second place this weekend. This is a strong holding movie that continues to impress in the box office. It has now gotten over $300 million world wide, and has a little legs left in it.
Thursday, April 13, 2017
Box Office Predictions: 'The Fate of the Furious'
Every now and then there is a time in theatres when there is only one wide release scheduled. It usually signifies a stand out performance is expected and there is little that wants to go up against it. It isn't necessarily the case with all blockbusters, as sometimes counter programming offers options for those that don't want to watch the latest Star Wars. This weekend is one where there is nothing else in sight other than fast cars and tuned up bodies.
Two years ago, around the same time of year (give or take a week earlier) Furious 7 burst into movie theatres across the continent and set forth the largest April opening weekend on record with $147 million. It also sits in fifth place for the highest world wide opening weekends of all time with $397 million. Furious 7 was a movie that turned a lot of heads and got a lot of people to flood the theatres, and Universal is looking to repeat that with this year's offering.
However, I don't think that it is going to perform as well as the previous attempt. There was something going for Furious 7 that the latest instalment does not have, and that is the death of Paul Walker. His passing gave new light to the movie, and inspired an ending to it that was a farewell to the deceased actor. That boosted interest in the movie is now gone, and it is going to come down to general marketing and audience interest to get the wheels spinning on this one.
There have been a few additions to the cast to add to the already beefed up star power, but I don't see Helen Mirren as a talent that fans of the franchise know too much about. They could be excited to see Charlize Theron playing the villain, which is something that positive reviews of the film point out as being a quality performance.
Even with the bigger cast, it is often extremely difficult to maintain excitement and buzz for a franchise. It is incredibly difficult to see box office numbers get bigger as a franchise goes along, and I can't see this being the case for the Furious films two outings in a row. I expect that it will see a decent sized drop this weekend compared to the 2015 instalment, but it will by no means be a failure. Universal is still going to see a lot of money come from this film, just not as much as perhaps they are hoping for.
The Fate of the Furious Opening Weekend Prediction: $125 million
That's about it for this weekend. The other thing that will be interesting to see is if Beauty and the Beast will end up on top of The Boss Baby this weekend. At this stage of their releases, I think that anything's possible, but I will be surprised if Beauty and the Beast manages to overcome The Boss Baby. Out of the two films, it is the one that stands to lose the most audience members to The Fate of the Furious, with The Boss Baby having a younger demographic to lean into that won't be seeing this month's hottest movie. I could be wrong, though. It has happened once or twice before.
Two years ago, around the same time of year (give or take a week earlier) Furious 7 burst into movie theatres across the continent and set forth the largest April opening weekend on record with $147 million. It also sits in fifth place for the highest world wide opening weekends of all time with $397 million. Furious 7 was a movie that turned a lot of heads and got a lot of people to flood the theatres, and Universal is looking to repeat that with this year's offering.
However, I don't think that it is going to perform as well as the previous attempt. There was something going for Furious 7 that the latest instalment does not have, and that is the death of Paul Walker. His passing gave new light to the movie, and inspired an ending to it that was a farewell to the deceased actor. That boosted interest in the movie is now gone, and it is going to come down to general marketing and audience interest to get the wheels spinning on this one.
There have been a few additions to the cast to add to the already beefed up star power, but I don't see Helen Mirren as a talent that fans of the franchise know too much about. They could be excited to see Charlize Theron playing the villain, which is something that positive reviews of the film point out as being a quality performance.
Even with the bigger cast, it is often extremely difficult to maintain excitement and buzz for a franchise. It is incredibly difficult to see box office numbers get bigger as a franchise goes along, and I can't see this being the case for the Furious films two outings in a row. I expect that it will see a decent sized drop this weekend compared to the 2015 instalment, but it will by no means be a failure. Universal is still going to see a lot of money come from this film, just not as much as perhaps they are hoping for.
The Fate of the Furious Opening Weekend Prediction: $125 million
That's about it for this weekend. The other thing that will be interesting to see is if Beauty and the Beast will end up on top of The Boss Baby this weekend. At this stage of their releases, I think that anything's possible, but I will be surprised if Beauty and the Beast manages to overcome The Boss Baby. Out of the two films, it is the one that stands to lose the most audience members to The Fate of the Furious, with The Boss Baby having a younger demographic to lean into that won't be seeing this month's hottest movie. I could be wrong, though. It has happened once or twice before.
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Box Office Predictions: Smurfs: The Lost Village, Going in Style, and The Case for Christ
It is really dismal just how long I have been away from this blog. So dismal in fact that the last post I had was a dream about a movie review for Smurfs 2. I still try not to think about that movie, and luckily it hasn't haunted many of my thoughts over the past while. Unfortunately, however, there is a new Smurfs movie about to hit theatres, and I am here today to look at its financial chances and to see if it can beat out The Boss Baby for the number one spot on the charts.
It has been four years since a Smurfs movie has been released by Sony, and the big question is whether or not it is time for another one. Regardless of my thoughts on the matter, Sony has gone full on in trying to reboot the franchise, this time with full animation as opposed to the mix of animation and live action that they did with the first two films. It is a whole new set of cast members for this go-around, but is that enough for Sony to shake free of the memories of the second Smurfs movie, which didn't fair well domestically and was despised by many critics?
The main issue that Smurfs: The Lost Village will be running into is Alec Baldwin voicing the main role for The Boss Baby. It was a surprise hit that managed to take first place away from Beauty and the Beast last weekend, and should easily stay in the number one spot. It seems to be bad positioning for the Smurfs movie to come out when there are already two family movies in theatres, films that will most certainly be taking perspective audience members away.
There seems to be little buzz for this movie, and the main thing that it has going for it right now is that its budget is only $60 million. In the long run it should be able to make that back with its world wide grosses, but seeing as how the second Smurf movie was a considerable opening weekend drop from the first ($17.5 million compared to $35.6 million) I have to believe that there is not a whole lot of either good will or interest in the Smurfs universe. I expect this new movie, which lacks big names to interest the parents, will do similar, if not a little worse, than The Smurfs 2.
Smurfs: The Lost Village Opening Weekend Prediction - $16 million
Also opening up this weekend is Going in Style, a movie about three pensioners that decide to rob a bank after they get screwed over by said bank. It stars Alan Arkin, Michael Caine, and Morgan Freeman. Audiences do like movies that have older cast ensembles, and the trailer makes it appear as though these three play off of each other with great chemistry and timing.
I'm not saying that it will necessarily be a good movie, but the kind that can get older audiences off of their buts and into a comfy theatre seat for an evening. The best comparison that I could come up with for this film was Last Vegas, another movie that had Morgan Freeman in it. That film was able to take in $16 million during its opening week, but I am predicting that it will be less for Going in Style.
Why would I be looking to predict less for this movie? Well, it sounds like a superficial reason, but the answer is because it is April. This is generally a slower month for movies, and Last Vegas came out at the beginning of November in 2013. That's a time when there is generally more mature fare in theatres and it played well to that strength. Having this movie come out now reminds me of Robert DeNiro's The Big Wedding that came out in April of 2013. It had a star studded cast and failed to go anywhere, something that I am leaning towards a bit with Going in Style.
Going in Style Opening Weekend Prediction - $7 million
Finally, we have The Case for Christ hitting theatres this weekend in a smaller release. It is targeting around a thousand theatres, and aims to hit the Christian demographic. It is based off of a non-fiction book of the same name, and there are hopes that this will mean added dollars based off of the book's popularity.
As far as Christian fare goes this year, The Shack (also based off of a book) opened to $16 million its first weekend. That was a huge win for the film, which has so far achieved a domestic total of $53 million. The main differences between these two films are the fact that The Shack had a few well known actors in Octavia Spencer and Sam Worthington, something that The Case for Christ is missing. As well, the source material for The Shack was fiction, which will probably lead to better buy in from the audience as it is hard to imagine a non-fiction book about a man investigating Christianity to have a well rounded story.
I could be wrong, though. This could be another movie that defies expectations and gets people's attention. However, I am betting that I am right and that this movie fails to gain much traction. I am predicting around an average of $3,000 per theatre, which may be a bit steep. It is in line with the average that God's Not Dead 2 made around this time last year, so I don't think that it is out of the question to see that kind of per theatre average.
The Case for Christ Opening Weekend Prediction - $3 million
It has been four years since a Smurfs movie has been released by Sony, and the big question is whether or not it is time for another one. Regardless of my thoughts on the matter, Sony has gone full on in trying to reboot the franchise, this time with full animation as opposed to the mix of animation and live action that they did with the first two films. It is a whole new set of cast members for this go-around, but is that enough for Sony to shake free of the memories of the second Smurfs movie, which didn't fair well domestically and was despised by many critics?
The main issue that Smurfs: The Lost Village will be running into is Alec Baldwin voicing the main role for The Boss Baby. It was a surprise hit that managed to take first place away from Beauty and the Beast last weekend, and should easily stay in the number one spot. It seems to be bad positioning for the Smurfs movie to come out when there are already two family movies in theatres, films that will most certainly be taking perspective audience members away.
There seems to be little buzz for this movie, and the main thing that it has going for it right now is that its budget is only $60 million. In the long run it should be able to make that back with its world wide grosses, but seeing as how the second Smurf movie was a considerable opening weekend drop from the first ($17.5 million compared to $35.6 million) I have to believe that there is not a whole lot of either good will or interest in the Smurfs universe. I expect this new movie, which lacks big names to interest the parents, will do similar, if not a little worse, than The Smurfs 2.
Smurfs: The Lost Village Opening Weekend Prediction - $16 million
Also opening up this weekend is Going in Style, a movie about three pensioners that decide to rob a bank after they get screwed over by said bank. It stars Alan Arkin, Michael Caine, and Morgan Freeman. Audiences do like movies that have older cast ensembles, and the trailer makes it appear as though these three play off of each other with great chemistry and timing.
I'm not saying that it will necessarily be a good movie, but the kind that can get older audiences off of their buts and into a comfy theatre seat for an evening. The best comparison that I could come up with for this film was Last Vegas, another movie that had Morgan Freeman in it. That film was able to take in $16 million during its opening week, but I am predicting that it will be less for Going in Style.
Why would I be looking to predict less for this movie? Well, it sounds like a superficial reason, but the answer is because it is April. This is generally a slower month for movies, and Last Vegas came out at the beginning of November in 2013. That's a time when there is generally more mature fare in theatres and it played well to that strength. Having this movie come out now reminds me of Robert DeNiro's The Big Wedding that came out in April of 2013. It had a star studded cast and failed to go anywhere, something that I am leaning towards a bit with Going in Style.
Going in Style Opening Weekend Prediction - $7 million
Finally, we have The Case for Christ hitting theatres this weekend in a smaller release. It is targeting around a thousand theatres, and aims to hit the Christian demographic. It is based off of a non-fiction book of the same name, and there are hopes that this will mean added dollars based off of the book's popularity.
As far as Christian fare goes this year, The Shack (also based off of a book) opened to $16 million its first weekend. That was a huge win for the film, which has so far achieved a domestic total of $53 million. The main differences between these two films are the fact that The Shack had a few well known actors in Octavia Spencer and Sam Worthington, something that The Case for Christ is missing. As well, the source material for The Shack was fiction, which will probably lead to better buy in from the audience as it is hard to imagine a non-fiction book about a man investigating Christianity to have a well rounded story.
I could be wrong, though. This could be another movie that defies expectations and gets people's attention. However, I am betting that I am right and that this movie fails to gain much traction. I am predicting around an average of $3,000 per theatre, which may be a bit steep. It is in line with the average that God's Not Dead 2 made around this time last year, so I don't think that it is out of the question to see that kind of per theatre average.
The Case for Christ Opening Weekend Prediction - $3 million
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
About Me
- Scott Martin
- I'm smarter than a bat. I know this because I caught the little jerk bat that got in my apartment, before immediately and inadvertently bringing him back in. So maybe I'm not smarter than a bat.