This is a busy weekend in theatres, with three wide release films taking their shot at making money. Their timing isn't the best, as mid to late August is generally a time of year where movies go to die. There is a time of transition from summer blockbusters into fall Oscar fare. An absence of excitement dwells in theatres at this time, and right now War Dogs, Kubo and the Two Strings, and the remake of Ben-Hur are hoping that the general audience numbers swell in their favour.
War Dogs
If you haven't seen the trailers for this movie, it is the 'based on the true story' film about two young men in the United States who end up becoming gun runners. The man behind the movie, Todd Phillips, is best known for his work on the hugely successful Hangover trilogy. While they were well received by fans, the attraction faded over the course of the series, with the third one only totally $112 million domestically, a far cry from the $277 million of the first film.
Still, in the modern landscape of comedies, scoring over one hundred million is a great achievement. The big question is if this movie starring Jonah Hill and Miles Teller has what it takes to reach the same heights. Hill, while a recognizable name, has not been one to show that he is a big box office draw. That is not to take away from his great talents, it is just what the numbers show.
On social media, War Dogs has not been tracking well. As of the time of writing this, it only has just shy of 3,000 tweets for the day. Considering it opens tonight and that it is geared towards a younger audience, that does not bode well. What is really interesting is that The Bronze, a movie about a gymnast starring The Big Bang Theory's Melissa Rauch which has not been well received by critics or audiences, has more than twice as many tweets.
The really unfortunate factor facing War Dogs is the fact that it is coming out a week after the animated for adults film, Sausage Party. There is a good chance that the Seth Rogen starring movie about grocery store food gone wild will hold up well and that means it will dig into the pockets of War Dogs.
Prediction: $18 million
Kubo and the Two Strings
It has been a fairly strong year in terms of family focused movies, so it will take something special to make another movie stand out from the rest of the pack. Luckily, that is exactly the sort of thing that animation studio Laika is known for. At a time where all animation seems to be focused on computers, Laika uses brilliant and beautiful stop motion to capture their stories. The trailers for Kubo give a taste of the visual treats that the film will have.
Unfortunately their films don't set records when it comes to their releases. The Boxtrolls brought in $17 million during it's opening weekend, which was three million better than Paranorman, which came out in 2012. The performance in the box office seems to be steady, reaching world wide totals close to the $110 million mark, and I don't see much changing for this one.
Prediction: $17 million
Ben-Hur
There is a lot riding on this movie. I am not talking about terms of franchise potential or anything like that, but more in the pure financial sense. It cost roughly one hundred million to make, which is a lot for a film that is being released during the third weekend of August. The advertising for it has also been pretty intense, so there will be a hefty marketing budget that Paramount will be needing to make up.
If there is something that we have learned from the horror genre in the mid 2000s, it's that remakes of 'classics' do not essentially mean success. Are audiences really dying for a remake of the original movie that was nominated for over ten Academy Awards? The big answer, at least what I am thinking based on recent trends of movies, is that they aren't. Just look at Ghostbusters and the difficulties it had in getting audience members in their seats. That film is looking down the barrel of a $70 million loss, and I would be surprised if Ben-Hur ends up doing better.
With Morgan Freeman as the only recognizable cast member, there is nothing here that is going to push people to go out and see it. The reviews for it are currently in the dumps, sitting at 33% on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of writing this. It will end up keeping some people at home, but the religious material in Ben-Hur may be its saving grace. Audiences of faith based material generally don't pay attention to the critics. If this remake is able to really tap into that audience, then it may stand a chance.
Prediction: $10 million
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