Could this finally be the weekend that Suicide Squad gets knocked out of first place in the box office? I am voting yes. The run of Suicide Squad, spending three weeks at number one, had less to do with its holding power than it did with the weaker offerings that come about at this time of year. Going into week four of its release, it will come as an absolute shock to me if it is able to hold off an upstart horror film that should be able to take first place from it.
Don't Breathe
This is the second team up from producer Sam Raimi and director Fede Alvarez. The two paired up originally with the 2013 remake, Evil Dead. Alvarez was a first time feature film director, having worked on a number of shorts before hand. While I was a bit of a fence sitter on the final product, Alvarez showed that he was extremely capable of using environment to set to the tone and the feel of a film, something that will play well into Don't Breathe, as it appears to spend almost all of its time without one house.
It was that attention to atmosphere, as well as cinematography, that helped win over the fans of horror as he used practical effects and led Evil Dead to an opening weekend of $25 million. The movie topped out at $54 million domestically, so it didn't have the greatest legs. But, long term projection is not what I am all about in these articles, so let's not worry about that.
Evil Dead had something going for it that Don't Breathe doesn't have, and that is a name brand with rabid followers. I am not going to equate too much of Evil Dead's success to having a niche fan base, because we have seen in other films, like Edgar Wright's Cornetto trilogy, have hardcore fans that don't make a large impact on the box office. We could also look at Warcraft from earlier this summer to see that fans don't mean financial success.
All of that is to say that I don't see a huge dip in box office openings between Evil Dead and Don't Breathe. I think there will be a bit of a drop, and that Don't Breathe won't open to the same numbers, but it will come close. It has had a solid marketing campaign, and it is holding up well on Twitter. The critics are loving it, so it may just end up having better legs than the front loaded Evil Dead.
Prediction: $22 million
Mechanic: Resurrection
This movie is a difficult one to think about. Firstly, it is because the first movie was not a hit. It brought in a world wide tally of $62 million on a budget of $40 million. Those are hardly numbers that make a property declarable as a winner. Secondly, it's star, Jason Statham, is not a big numbers driver. He does well in ensemble casts, but films where he is the principle cast member don't run very well. This is his first starring role since 2013's Homefront, which opened to just under $7 million. The opening weekend numbers are similar for other efforts such as Parker ($7 million opening weekend), and Safe ($7.8 million opening).
It is hard to believe that things have changed drastically for Statham and his ability to draw audiences. This is a franchise that nobody was really asking for. Movies about action and adventure have a difficult time drawing at this time of year. Last year saw Hitman: Agent 47 open to $8 million, as well as No Escape opening to the same numbers a week later.
While the title of the film is 'resurrection,' I don't believe that it is apt for this film. This one could easily be considered dead before it hits theatres. The best chance it has at making any of its reported $40 million budget back will be in the international scene.
Prediction: $6 million
"Hands of Stone" ended up getting a pretty low theatre count and didn't even make your prediction article. I'd say more evidence Weinstein taking a big fall.
ReplyDeleteNot only is 'Mechanic: Resurrection' a sequel nobody wanted but a sequel to a remake that no one wanted. It is the deluxe double dip of cinema. Stathan is no Charles Bronson.
I thought about including Hands of Stone, but decided not to at the last minute. It just didn't seem like there was a lot to write about for that film. My prediction is that it does $1.75 million.
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