We are on the eve of the biggest awards show for North American cinema, so it makes sense to forego the typical movie review in favour of making my predictions for tomorrow night’s Oscar Awards. Earlier this week on The Breakdown Podcast (it was recorded two weeks ago) fellow podcaster Christopher Spicer and I made known our thoughts on the most deserving candidates for the major categories, as well as predicting who we thought would win. Even in the short amount of time that has passed since then, I have found my predictions have ended up changing. So, here is my list of who I predict will end up taking home the statuette tomorrow night.
Best Supporting Actor
I believe a lot of the potential for this award mainly rests
on two people this year. Jared Leto for
his role as the drag queen Rayon who is dying of AIDS in Dallas Buyers Club, and Barkhad Abdi for his role as the Somali
pirate captain who boarded the Maersk Alabama in Captain Phillips. While I
personally believe that Abdi had the more impressive performance, I think the
Academy will end up giving the award to Leto, whose role was more in line with
what people would call ‘Oscar Bait.’
Even saying that, a win for Leto would be deserved and justified as he
gave a career performance as a fragile, caring, passionate, and dying
soul. Leto has laid low from Hollywood
while focusing on his music career, and this performance is one that should
remind people just how much talent this artist has within him.
Prediction - Jared Leto,
Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting
Actress
The main two people in contention for this award right now
are American Hustle’s Jennifer
Lawrence, and 12 Years a Slave’s
Lupita Nyong’o. Lawrence continues to
show the world just how talented she is in her role of the wife of a con-man,
who is able to manipulate and bend him to her will. She demonstrates charm, humour, and energy in
a way that we have not yet seen from her.
However winning an Oscar last year may hinder her chances, as voters may
want to give someone else a shot. The
other main threat to the award is feature film newcomer Lupita Nyong’o, an
actress who captured many people’s hearts for her portrayal of a slave girl in 12 Years a Slave. There were many complexities to the role as
she was a broken person, talented, artistic, innocent, and hard working. She was the kind of person who we ached for,
because we could only imagine the potential life that she could have had if not
for the horrific life of slavery she was a part of. As well, Nyong’o won the Supporting Actress
award from the Screen Actors Guild which is the largest voting branch of the
Academy, and what I believe will put her over the top. While I think Lawrence should win the award,
I believe the imperfect voting system of the Academy will keep her from taking
it home back to back.
Prediction - Lupita Nyon’o,
12 Years a Slave
Best Actor
This is an incredibly tight category which saw two deserving
veterans in Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Robert Redford (All Is Lost) being
left off of the ballot. One of the names
in serious contention is Chiwetel Ejiofor for the lead role in 12 Years a Slave, a role that won him a
BAFTA for Best Lead Actor. He portrays a
free black man in America who is kidnapped and sold into slavery, a man who
refuses to give up hope of returning to his family through some of the most
vile scenarios one could imagine.
Ejiofor masters the performance and leads the rest of the stellar cast
to excellence, and shows the multiple skills of this seasoned actor. Eating up almost all of the conversation
right now is Matthew McConaughey for his role of bigoted AIDS victim Ron
Woodroof in Dallas Buyers Club. McConaughey lost a great deal of weight for
this role, a visual that does not leave the mind quickly, but it is not the
reason why he is getting all of the talk.
The performance is a dynamic triumph as he is able to bring so much life
and emotion to this character that we feel disgust for, and yet yearn to see
him come around. He has been gobbling up
all of the major awards on route to the Oscars, and it is hard to see tomorrow
night turning out any differently.
Prediction – Matthew McConaughey,
Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress
This is most likely the most tightly packed category of the
performance awards, with performances like Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks and Brie Larson in Short Term 12 not even being able to
make the cut, although both were definitely deserving. There is Oscar titan Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) who plays a pill
popping, self-esteem crushing, steam-roller matriarch of a picture-perfect
dysfunctional family. Dame Judi Dench (Philomena) who plays one of the most
heartwarming roles I have ever encountered, in the real life story of an
elderly woman trying to track down the son she put up for adoption in her
teens. Sandra Bullock (Gravity) is a one woman show in this
special effects masterpiece of disaster in space, bringing panic, desperation,
and a drive to survive and make it back to earth against all odds. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) in her portrayal of a woman who fell in love (and
dependant) on a life of means as identity, but then crashes back to earth and
is forced to rebuild. And finally, Amy
Adams (American Hustle) who plays the
most grounded and sane of the characters in the film, a person who is able to
put on a front to make a con, but is also looking for more substance in life.
Out of all of these wonderful performances, I have to pick
Cate Blanchett to win. With all of the
talent representing the ladies this year, she was the one who was head and
shoulders above the rest, as she nailed home a nuanced performance that depended
on so much vocal expression, facial details, and body language to communicate
the constantly changing mental state that she was rolling through. She shows skills worth of the award, as well
as having taken home almost all of the awards leading up to the big night.
Prediction – Cate Blanchett,
Blue Jasmine
Best Director
This is a category that has changed in the two weeks since
recording the podcast. This is not
because the pack is as competitive as the Lead Actress category, but because
there are three people (as well as their movies, which is the next category)
who feel interchangeable as to who could win.
There is David O. Russell (American
Hustle), a man who is able to create fully shaped characters and guide
actors to career performances (last year his movie Silver Lining’s Playbook took nominations in all four performance
categories, and this year the same has happened with American Hustle). Alfonso
Cuaron created the visual and emotional 3D thrill ride of Gravity, showing that you do not need a large cast and intricate
plot to tell a good story. And then
there is Steve McQueen {12 Years a Slave),
who was able to reign in the audiences focus amongst horrible situations in
beautiful locations, full of amazing cast members, and tell a tale of hope and perseverance. If any of these men win, there is no
injustice at all, and while I desire for Russell to win, I think it will be the
technical skills shown by Cuaron that will take the prize.
Prediction – Alfonso Cuaron,
Gravity
Best Picture
Just like the last category, this field seems to be
dominated by three films. American Hustle is a stylish, character
driven, vibrant story based on the ABSCAM operation in the 1970s. The movie captures a wonderful feel of the
times through the performances of the actors, the costumes, the music, and the
environment. It is a well-crafted tale
of ambition and identity, and the search for it, among criminals and cops. Gravity
is a beautifully shot space adventure of survival with seamless use of CGI, as
well as not having the human element lost in all of the pixels. Sure, it was short on dialogue, but a good
story does not necessarily need that if it is told correctly, and such was the
case with Gravity. In the cold, dark of space, we were
introduced to the warm heart of Dr. Ryan Stone (Sandra Bullock), and we were
invested fully in her struggles and desired to see her come out on top. 12
Years a Slave is a beautiful period piece, making great work of locations
and wardrobe, to tell a very ugly and sad tale of slavery. While some people may be put off by the
depressing nature of the content, the intent of the movie is not to dwell on
it, but to highlight the human fight to hold onto hope against all despair. Backed by great casting and performances
across the board, it is a film that is able to accomplish the task that it set
out to do.
As with the Best Director category, it is no shame if any of
these nominees win. While there are six
others who are hoping for the biggest prize in Hollywood (The Wolf of Wall Street, Philomena, Nebraska, Captain Phillips, Her, and
Dallas Buyers Club), they are all
outside chances at this point even though there could always be an upset. The big question is going to come down to how
the majority of the voters lean, and what they hold as preference. If they are squeamish of brutal tales, they
will most likely not be voting for 12 Years
a Slave. If they are fans of vibrant
acting performances, they may be shifting towards American Hustle. If they
view the technical aspects and their integration into the greater story as a
key component, then Gravity is a
likely vote. My thoughts are that the
movie which will take home the most votes will be 12 Years a Slave, as it has a great representation of all of the
different aspects of the movie machine, such as music, setting, cinematography,
script, casting, acting, directing, and wardrobe. I mainly find myself leaning back and forth
between it and American Hustle, which
is another film that embraces all aspects of film making, creating a situation
for me where I cannot feel confident of predicting definitively either way.
Prediction – 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Picture
This category is leaving out what some critics to believe is
one of the best of the year in Monsters
University, a movie that could have had a shot at winning. Within the list of contenders, I think the
runaway favourite is Frozen, a film
which has really caught on with audiences around the globe and keeps the
reliance of a princess needing a prince to save her from entering into the
film.
Prediction – Frozen
Best Cinematography
This is the only category where early Oscar hopeful Prisoners was able to land a nomination,
as well as being only one of two nominations for the greatly undervalued Coen
brothers film, Inside Llewyn Davis. While both were beautifully shot (especially Inside Llewyn Davis), I believe they
will not have much of a chance against the dazzling Gravity.
Prediction – Gravity
Best Costume Design
While the wardrobe in 12
Years a Slave was magnificent, I think the true wonder in this category is American Hustle. A lot of 70s period
pieces display the big lapels, but Hustle
was able to do it in a vibrant manor that stood out without being
distracting or stereotypical. From
dresses to suits, the film oozed the style and heart of the times.
Prediction – American Hustle
Best Documentary
Feature
With some incredible entries in this category, it is not an
easy decision to make. Early on in the
race, there were a lot of indicators that The
Act of Killing and Tim’s Vermeer
were solid contenders. With Tim’s Vermeer not making it onto the
ballot, and the emotionally draining content and length of The Act of Killing, I believe the most likely candidate will be 20 Feet From Stardom, a documentary that
has been steamrolling lately and dominating much of the conversation around
this category.
Prediction – 20 Feet From Stardom
Best Documentary
Short
I really need to plead some ignorance on this category, as I
have not been able to get a feel towards how the nominees are faring. Blindly trying to pin the tail on the donkey,
I am going with Facing Fear, a
documentary that follows the chance meeting of a gay man and a neo-Nazi who
ruthlessly attacked him twenty five years earlier. Stories of discrimination and reconciliation can
make for memorable material that stands out.
Prediction – Facing Fear
Best Film Editing
This one is a bit of a toss-up for me, as I see American Hustle, Captain Phillips, and Gravity all being possible winners. Hustle was
able to catch a lot of energy, and the pace played well with the story. Captain
Phillips was able to deliver non-stop tension on the high seas, and a lot
of that was due to how it was put together.
Gravity was a disaster
adventure that felt absolutely seamless in its deliver, bringing the audiences
perspective from all angles of the action in smooth transitions.
Prediction – Gravity
Best Foreign Language
Film
A strong contender for this award, Blue is the Warmest Colour, was not able to qualify for nomination
as it did not get released in time in its home country. Also missing from the list of nominees are
early contenders Wadjda, and The Past, leaving the field open for
other movies to step up to the plate.
Myself, I am going to be leaning towards Denmark’s drama, The Hunt.
Predition – The Hunt
Best Makeup and
Hairstyling
This is only a field of three, and oddly enough we see the
fellows from Jackass gaining a
nomination for Bad Grandpa. Also nominated was The Lone Ranger, but perhaps the fact that it performed so poorly
in the box office will keep it from being seen as a real voting favourite. That leaves the smart money on Dallas Buyers Club for the outstanding
visuals we got of Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto as they battled AIDS.
Prediction – Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score
This pick was very easy for me to make, and that is for Gravity.
This movie really is a great demonstration of just how a film can use
all aspects to convey the story and the emotions to the audience. The music, much like the visuals, audio, and
editing, fit perfectly into the bigger picture, making it a well-oiled machine.
Prediction – Gravity
Best Original Song
This is a category which was not without controversy, as the
little known faith-based film Alone Yet
Not Alone ended up with a nomination that shocked many people. It later got disqualified because of
breaching the guidelines for promoting it thanks to an email from its composer
(and former Governor of the Academy) Bruce Broughton, who urged voters to
consider it for nomination. This move
broke the campaigning rule that states promotions must be made to the general
public, and not strictly to Academy members.
After a while, the dust had settled and the conversation could finally
revolve around the other nominees.
Currently, I feel that the song that is gathering the most attention and
has the best chance of winning is Let it Go, from Frozen.
Prediction – Let it
Go, Frozen
Best Production
Design
In this category, one in which Gravity could easily win, I am going against the awards behemoth
and picking The Great Gatsby, a movie
period piece that strove to show the opulence of the roaring twenties.
Prediction – The Great Gatsby
Best Animated Short/Live
Action Short
I am completely at a loss for who will be winning these
categories so I will be deferring to The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinber’s
picks for two reasons. First, he has an
awesome first name. Secondly, his
predictions have lined up fairly closely to mine, so I trust where his head is
at. Third, I know I didn’t say there
would be a ‘third,’ he is really experienced and has a proven track record.
Animated Short
Prediction – Get a Horse!
Live Action Short
Prediction – Helium
Best Sound Editing
and Best Sound Mixing
Both of these categories are going to get the same
prediction from me, and that is Gravity. I just cannot see how this film will not be
sweeping the technical awards this year as it paid so much attention to detail
in bringing together all of the combined elements of filmmaking.
Prediction for Both
Categories – Gravity
Best Visual Effects
One movie that is missing from contention is Joseph Kosinski’s
Oblivion, which had visuals that were
immaculate and it was almost impossible to tell what was a set piece and what
was CGI. Of the contenders on the list,
the easy choice to make is Gravity,
because it was not just the best looking picture this year, but perhaps the
best looking of all time.
Prediction – Gravity
Best Adapted
Screenplay
While I truly believe that Before Midnight was the best of all screenplays this year, I am
worried that it is just not on enough people’s minds. I think the most likely option here is for 12 Years a Slave to walk away with the
award, but a heartwarming upset by Philomena
is not out of the picture.
Prediction – 12 Years a Slave
Best Original
Screenplay
In this category I find myself constantly wavering back and
forth between Her and American Hustle, as both were extremely
well written. In the end, I am going
with Hustle, which was able to create
vivid and fully dimensional characters, with added elements of tension and
humour.
Prediction – American Hustle
During the broadcast of the awards, I will be doing a live blog following the events of the show, so please feel free to jump onto the blog tomorrow night as the events unfold.
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