Box Office Predictions: 'The Mummy' 'Megan Leavey' and 'It Comes At Night'

There are three new entrants to the box office this weekend, and each of them are looking to grab the attention of the movie going crowds.  The big question is if any of them will be able to topple Wonder Woman from first place in the box office.

The movie with the best chances of doing that is The Mummy.  It stars Tom Cruise, and is positioned as a big budget blockbuster.  Special effects, sequences of Mr. Cruise running... this movie would like to believe that it has it all.  There are great expectations mounted on this film, as it is the kick off to Universal's Dark Universe, something that I wrote about recently on the blog.  The expectations aren't just that it will succeed as a movie, but that it will create a launching pad for an entire franchise.

Those expectations are not looking so good at this point.  Currently it has a sour 18% on Rotten Tomatoes, a sign that it could be in some trouble.  To get some comparison here, I am going to look at another Tom Cruise movie that was also an established property, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back.  It had 37% on Rotten Tomatoes and opened up at only $22 million.  Cruise is a recognizable name, that's for sure, but people more generally like to see him in good movies.  Having the name alone doesn't do much.

At the time of writing this, The Mummy has just shy of 15,000 tweets for the day.  Last week at this time, Wonder Woman had well over 130,000 before opening to $105 million.  What is not looking good for The Mummy is that the positive to negative ratio of tweets stands at 3:1.  That's not good at all for a movie that is expected to launch an entire cinematic universe.  Two days ago, that ratio was 2:1.

Probably the most terrifying indicator is the fact that, according to Rotten Tomatoes, only 51% of the audience enjoyed the film.  In an age where word of mouth springs forth as fast as it takes to type something onto your phone, this could be the death of the movie.  There is a chance that there are those that are determined to see the film based off of the recognition of the property, but there are too many signs that people sitting on the fence are going to be staying home.

The Mummy Opening Weekend Prediction - $28 million

Coming from studio A24, is It Comes At Night.  This is a horror film, and this genre has shown in the past that there is room during the summer for horrors to do well.  The trailers make it look like it could be a great film, and the critical reception has been solid.  It currently holds 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is something special for a horror film.

The down side is that it hasn't been doing well on social media.  Well, that's difficult to say.  According to boxoffice.com, it is tracking ahead of The Gift on Facebook, yet below The Witch.  This makes it difficult to get an understanding of just how much social media is indicating the performance of this movie.  One Twitter, it has over three thousand tweets for the day, and is sitting at the same 3:1 ratio as The Mummy.  While the critics are on board for this film, Rotten Tomatoes has the audience rating at 52%.

It Comes At Night Opening Weekend Prediction - $8 million

Lastly, we have Megan Leavey starring Kate Mara.  It is being distributed by Bleeker Street, and is opening in just shy of two thousand theatres.  This is a war story that involves a dog, so it could appeal to animal lovers.  They showed that they will go out to theatres with A Dog's Purpose, which opened to a healthy $18 million.  The fact that there are solid reviews (currently at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes) should help this movie out of the gates.

The big question to be asked is if Kate Mara is enough of a star to carry a movie.  Last year, Morgan, opened to only $2 million.  It is currently the ninth worst opening all time for a movie opening in two thousand or more theatres.  Now, these movies are in different genres and there are a number of differing circumstances, but the fact remains that Mara just isn't much of a star yet, even though she is incredibly talented.

Megan Leaves Opening Weekend Prediction - $3 million