This week has not been the most exciting for me. Instead of plowing forward with projects, I took some down time for myself. I was ordered by my wife to play some video games and to not think about writing for a bit, so that's what Wednesday and Thursday were for me. As much as I tried to stay away, I still found myself getting a lot of proofreading done on a manuscript. So much for being able to walk away from it completely.
So, that is why this weekend's predictions are getting posted today instead of on Thursday. That and the fact that there was little to become excited about with the offerings in store for movie goers. Pondering over the numbers, it is doubtful that either The Light Between Oceans or Morgan is going to be able to make over ten million in their debut.
The Light Between Oceans
For some people, hearing the name Derek Cianfrance attached to a movie is enough to get them excited and out to theatres. He made his name off of 2010's critical darling, Blue Valentine. It was his first feature film, and one that earned an Oscar nomination for Michelle Williams' performance. Cianfrance followed it up with The Place Beyond the Pines, his first movie to make it into wide release after spending three weeks in limited release. With two solid films behind his name, the problem is that the crowd that knows who he is and follows him is still a small one.
This time around he is teaming with Buena Vista, and The Light Between Oceans is beginning in wide release instead of having to work its way towards it. When The Place Beyond the Pines was in its first weekend of wide release, it made $4.9 million. I see The Light Between Oceans doing a bit better than that, but not by much. While it has the marketing power of Disney behind it, there is very little social awareness of the product.
The other thing that is going to hurt the movie are the critical reviews. At the time of writing this, it is sitting at sixty percent on Rotten Tomatoes. That's not awful, but it is low enough to possibly dissuade the type of mature movie goer that would be thinking about seeing this movie.
Prediction - $7.5 million
Morgan
Opening up opposite is Fox's Morgan, starring Kate Mara and Anya Taylor-Joy. Both of them are extremely talented actors, but the issue is their drawing power. Taylor-Joy is still a relative unknown, and Mara has not been in key starring roles before. Most of her mainstream works come from supporting positions, such as in The Martian and Fantastic Four.
But, as last month's Don't Breathe showed us, you don't need to have marquee names as leads to propel a horror-rooted film into a good position in the box office. The difference here is the social media factor. There was a lot of awareness for Don't Breathe, while Morgan doesn't even show up in the top ten most tweeted films, a death blow to a movie that is opening this weekend and has a target demographic that is fuelled by social media.
Prediction - $5.5 million
No comments:
Post a Comment