Diversity Trumps Super Powers

What says 'Summer Blockbusters' better than super hero movies?  Apparently, according to the summer of 2015, the answer is Universal Studios.

Ever since Marvel and Disney launched The Avengers, the movie industry has had an unhealthy attraction to the development of what was then being called the 'shared universe.'  This was when you could have multiple franchises existing in the same story line which could culminate in a major cinematic event, much like The Avengers.

It's a golden goose, really.  It worked for Marvel, so why would it not work for everyone else?  It became the catalyst for studios to shift the long term focus and roll out schedules of franchises and properties that would nail what Marvel and Disney did in 2012.  The problem with this strategy is 'the year 2012.'  The earth survived death via ancient calendar, and was also the landmark year for super hero movie success in The Avengers.

Three full years have passed since then, and the 2012 movie has yet to have another super hero conquer it.  The world wide gross for The Avengers is $1.5 billion, and the only other super hero flicks that have gotten within half a billion dollars of it are The Dark Knight Rises (2012, $1.084 billion), Iron Man 3 (2013, $1.215 billion), and Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015, $1.402 billion).

What is the point of me writing all of this?  Well, the point is that the driving strategy for major studios right now is to strive towards something that is already showing diminishing returns.  Domestically, the second Avengers movie grossed 26.5% less than the first film.  That drop is incredibly substantial for a film that had intentions of beating the mark of the first film.  What really assisted the second Avengers was the overseas reception.  The international markets, especially China, have been gobbling up these big budget films at a furious rate.  However, just as a pinnacle can be reached domestically, so can it be reached over seas.

And this is the high stakes gamble that studios are taking with their push for the shared universe experience that Marvel Studios has.  Any major payoff, such as what The Avengers was, will be coming years down the line as the setup and hype needs to be established along the way.  A lot can change in the cinematic landscape over the course of just one year and viewer trends can change.

Now, let's at a look at the present.  There were three super hero films released this year, compared to a glut of seven on slate for next year.  Each and every one of the three in 2015 fell short of studio hopes, and, in one case, was a financial disaster.  I have already mentioned that Avengers: Age of Ultron failed to replicate the success of the first film, so I won't dwell on that.  Marvel Studios also released Ant-Man this year, and this became a very telling tale for the industry.

Until this point, there was unparalleled success for Marvel Studios.  Last year saw the risk they took in releasing the relatively unknown property Guardians of the Galaxy pay off in big ways.  However, Ant-Man proved that just because something was released as a Marvel Studios film, it was not a guaranteed success.  Ant-Man was a different type of film than the typical fare, and it suffered for it.  Whether the happily modest reception was based on the style of the film, the marketing, or just the lack of care for a hero the size of an ant, I will never know.  What I do know, and what Marvel now knows, is that not just anything will do.

The third, and final, super hero film of 2015 was Fantastic Four.  Fox already has the revitalized X-Men franchise, but to create a shared universe they would need more.  Unfortunately for them, they don't have a lot of rights, so Fantastic Four it was.  Neither of the two earlier films in franchise had been remarkable hits, but when you are trying to play catch up, you use what you have.  The problem is that good movie ideas need to come about organically, and not for a need to merely exist so it can create future films.  There was not much kind to be said about the film when it was released, from critics, viewers, cast, or crew.

Next year will be the big tell of exactly how everything is heading in the world of super hero movie dollars.  The ever so bloated Superman V Batman: Dawn of Justice is coming out in March.  Warner Bros and DC Comics have a lot riding on this film.  If anyone is to challenge the supremacy of The Avengers (and remember, that supremacy is one that is getting financially weaker), it is DC.  What laid the backbone for this was Zack Snyder's Man of Steel in 2013.

While the film took home a hearty $668 million world wide, it is not the monstrous success it appears to be if we take a closer look at the financials.  BoxOffice.com reports that its final budget after production and marketing expenses was $300 million.  That means, because the studios share profits with the exhibitors, a likely estimate on actual profit is close to $70 million.  That's correct, the film did not even make $100 million in profit and is now part of one of the costliest, long term gambles in cinema history.  If Dawn of Justice is a flop, all of the work they have done in creating their vision of the shred universe is dead instantly.

To me, this is simply the yellow highlighter that has been used to mark up the page.  This strategy, and the ones pouring from other studios, is designed around something that appears to have possibly already peaked.  It is based around a success that happened three years ago.  People may already be tiring of super hero main event films, and coming in second, third, or fourth place in this race means you missed out and possibly lost a lot of money.

The alternative would be to go your own way to use a diverse slate of films that engages different audiences, different genders, different ages, and different races.  That concept seems counter-intuitive to the Hollywood system.  Look for the young male demographic, and keep swinging as you mine their money.

Universal is already the uncontested winner of 2015, and there are still four months left.  What they did, for lack of super hero franchises, was embrace diversity.  They released successes from Fifty Shades of Grey to Straight Outta Compton.  They had global smashes in Furious 7 and Jurassic World, but they also owned smaller wins with Pitch Perfect 2 and Trainwreck.  This past week saw the micro budget horror The Visit nail a $20 million opening weekend.  While everyone else has a singular focus, the biggest lesson to be learned is that movies aimed at different audiences and different genres is indeed the way to go.  It is inarguable.  Just look at Universal's numbers and tell me I am wrong.